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December 27, 2015

Too Many USD Bulls?

John M. Bland


USD Sentiment Bullish For 2016

Many of the analyses I am seeing for 2016 are for a higher USD in the new year as it appears that short-term interest rate spreads in the first half of the year are likely to widen further in favor of the U.S. It would be very hard to make the argument that this is not likely to happen based on what we know now so I will not. My only concern about this scenario may be that too many people are feeling the same way and we all know that when everyone in a market has a similar

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December 21, 2015

Forex Trading Outlook for the Year Ahead

The year ahead is full of key events that should see continued volatility in the forex and global markets. In this regard, monetary policy divergence is likely to remain a key theme, which should remain supportive for the dollar, at least to start the year as expectations are for the Fed to hike rates in March. There are other land mines for global markets as I outline in my video outlook, including the slump in oil, equities, China, Brexit and the US elections. 

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December 21, 2015

Scam Alert: IntegrityFX: Another Broker Takes The Money and Runs

I won’t call it an epidemic but here is another case of a broker taking your money and run. We have noted some cases of this recently and this broker is IntegrityFX, which appears to have shut its doors and taken clients’ funds with it. I received the following in an email from one of our members: The broker we used (IntegrityFx turned out to go out of business and ran with client funds), I did some investigation as I am not familiar with this broker and came up with the following:

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December 20, 2015

No Big Fed Surprises At Lift-Off

John M. Bland


Fed Funds To Rise 25bp

With a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds rate already a given on Wednesday, the focus of trade after that announcement was on the Fed policy statement and Chair Yellen's press conference. Financial markets are always looking ahead and were already looking to the next policy move before the ink had dried on the policy statement on Wednesday. On balance, the markets judged the policy statement to be dovish. Some analysts did a keyword analysis on the statement. They found the word "Grad

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December 14, 2015

Ask Your Advocate: Will the Sharp Rise in FXCM Stock Ease Concerns (Followup)

 

This is a followup to the question of our Advocate whether the article about reports that FXCM looking to restructure its bailout loan is a cause for concern. One reason for concern has been its falling stock price and the sharp rise in the price today (50+%) should ease some of the worry although it habe to get back over the equivalent of $1 (i.e. $10/share) after its recent 10:1 revese stock split.  

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December 13, 2015

Ask Your Advocate: Should I Be Worried About FXCM?

Ask Your Advocate: I have an account with FXCM and just read a story about its stock price plummeting and reports it is looking to restructure its bailout loan. Do you think I need to be worried about my money and should I withdraw it?

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December 12, 2015

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of December 14, 2015

Global markets will enter the new week reeling from a risk off finish with the sharp drop in oil prices (note the weaker CAD) sending ripples acrtoss the board. This has seen USDJPY lead and EURUSD test 1.10+, the latter confounding the chorus of calls for parity just over a week ago. This sets the stage for the long awaited FOMC meeting on Wednesdaqy where a rate hike should be discounted and a dovish statement expected to accompany the decision. In any case, EURUSD 1.10 will likely set its tone going forwards.

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December 13, 2015

Fed Lift-Off At Hand

John M. Bland


Fed Funds To Rise 25bp

Odds strongly favor an increase in the relatively new Federal Reserve corridor for the Fed Funds rate. It currently is 0% to 0.25%, and the expectation is for the central bank to raise the target to 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed has moved to a target range for Fed funds from a single point, owing to concern that it will be difficult to tightly manage rates after an enormous amount of liquidity was injected into the system, as a result of its Asset Purchase Program otherwise known as

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December 10, 2015

EXCLUSIVE: How to Trade a Liquidating Forex Market

This is a must read! I have written several articles on how to trade a liquidating market and given the price action over the past week, including yesterday, it is worth reiterating. Understanding the dynamics of a liquidating market, recognizing when in one and having strategies to trade it can make the difference between have a good day and a painful one by making the forex market your enemy as I will explain in this exclusive report. 

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December 04, 2015

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of December 7, 2015

The week ahead is likely to see a holding pattern with the market recovering from the EUR tsunami that swept away short positions and looking forward to the FOMC decision on December 16. There is a light economic calendar so little to move markets, which could leave the focus on U.S. stocks to set the risk tone. The other focus will be on crude oil as it battles around the $40 per barrel line. This suggests the forex market will be more of a follower than a leader and I lay out what will likely be the ranges. 

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December 06, 2015

Central Bank Decisions A Source Of Turmoil

John M. Bland


Buy the Rumor Sell The Fact

Beware of markets when there is a strong market consensus for a given outcome. Traders had been waiting for over a month for ECB President Draghi to announce a stimulus program that was expected to increase liquidity in the Eurozone, and as a result weigh on EURUSD. So the markets were positioned heavily short the Euro and investors were "priced to perfection" for the Draghi announcement. The Draghi announcement generally fell short of what was expected. Word spread in

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December 03, 2015

Scam Alert: Beware of Broker Bonus Offers

This is an update to a request for help from a member who was having trouble getting a withdrawal from Capital One Forex. Thius included the broker's website disappearing although it is back up now. Also, this issue was never satisfied because trader appears to have lost his money trading. So let's call it resolved but with an asterisk. 

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December 01, 2015

Scam Alert: This Forex Broker Stole My Money

This is a follow up to my article posted last week entitled Scam Alert: Another Forex Broker Takes the Money and Run. The broker is FX Capital Bank and it appears to have disappeared along with our member's money. On its website it shows an office in London along with telephone numbers in France and Italy. I have been unable to locate its true headquarters and the telephone numbers have been disconnected. As a result, I have not been able to confirm but this appe

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November 29, 2015

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of November 30, 2015

The week ahead is one that is so full of key events and data that could say it is on information overload. However, there are two key events to watch, the ECB meeting on Thursday and the U.S. November employment report on Friday, which will go a long way in determining whether the market gets on a path for EURUSD parity. To start the week will be month end and look to see if those flows give some trading opportunites on the dollar upside. 

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November 29, 2015

Decisive Week For Forex Markets

John M. Bland


Busy Week In Store

The week ahead is shaping up to to be a critical one for the markets as it could see the resolution of major outstanding issues. President Draghi of the European Central Bank hinted at policy ease at the policy board meeting on Thursday. We should see what decision has been made this week. No final policy resolution will be seen from the Fed this week, but Fed Chair Yellen will testify twice before Congress and the critical November Employment report will be released on Friday.

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November 23, 2015

Scam Alert: Another Forex Broker Takes the Money and Run

Any forex broker can create a professional looking website but you must dig deeper to find out whether it is a legitimate firm.  I am not sure if this is a trend but I got another request asking for help to get funds recovered from a broker, the third in the past several weeks.

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November 21, 2015

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of November 22, 2015

I am calling the upcoming week the calm before the next storm. This is not usually a week where large bets are made as the U.S. is essentially closed from early Wednesday as many take a long Thanksgiving holiday break. This does not mean it will lack movement and as we were reminded this past week, the forex market rarely moves in a straight line. However, with the focus looking ahead to the following week, expectations of ECB easing monetary policy will likely keep a cap on the EURUSD upside, . 

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November 22, 2015

Euro Vulnerable to Further Declines

John M. Bland


Key Week For Central Bank Policies

The latest week saw policy board minutes from the latest Fed and European central Bank meetings. The Fed Minutes really told us nothing new, but appeared to solidify expectations for a Fed rate hike on December 16. After a couple of false starts, the central bank seems to be trying to make it as clear as possible that this time around rates are headed higher. Of course we still need to get through the October employment data on December 4, but it will take a disastro

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November 18, 2015

EURUSD Parity? Forex Market Smells Blood

It was a little over month ago that EURUSD traded to 1.1495, just below the top of a 1.05-1.15 range. It has fallen precipitously since then by over 800 pips and most have it targeting 1.0520 with an eye on the 2015 low at 1.0459. This has brought the bears back out of the woodwork and revived calls for parity for this currency pair.

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November 17, 2015

The Fed’s US Dollar Dilemma

As the December 16 FOMC decision is only one month away the Fed faces a dilemma as it looks to start normalizing rates. Assuming the Fed raises rates, it will not only be the first central bank to hike but it comes at a time when others, specifically the ECB, are moving in the opposite direction.  The dilemma is the US dollar and the impact from a currency that is heading higher.

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