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December 27, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of December 29, 2014

The dollar heads into the last week of the year on a firm note and should stay suppirted on dips into the New Year. However, liquidity is thin and month/quarter/year end comes out mid-week, ahead of what will be extended weekends for many. This will leave those carrying positions at the mercy of year end flows but any dollar dips, should they occur, should be seen as buying opportunites. See the following video for my trading outlook and key levels to watch. (note EURUSD 1.22 has traded 4 days in a row) 

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December 26, 2014

A Warning about Trading Over a Weekend

Independent traders have limited capital and protecting that capital is a key to “living to trade another day.” This is a term you will often hear when discussing prudent money management and protecting your downside. This is especially true when holding positions over a weekend as you can run into situations where your stop gets executed by your forex broker far from the level you placed it at.

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December 20, 2014

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of December 22, 2014

This is a hard week to make a call given the time of year but the market had its chance to squeeze out the weak hands and failed to follow through on retracements. This setup the weakest close for the year in the EURUSD and has this currency setting sights on my 1.2040 long standing target. The immediate obstacle is 1.2200 as I explain in the following video update: 

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December 21, 2014

Correlation Trades - December 21, 2014

Price Linkages
From my very start in finance in 1972, I've always been fascinated with the relationships of separate markets to one another. As traders we are always looking for a leg up by working a little harder than others. We also want to keep from getting blindsided by developments in parallel markets. One thing I publish daily is a correlation table daily on www.global-view.com. It is free under Premium Trading Tools for those who are registered for the website. I run the correlations in a short four-week time frame to pick up changes in relationships as they are developing.

Latest Correlation Plays
The latest one (starting in early

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December 18, 2014

Australian Regulatory Action vs, IB Brokers


We have been reading reports that ASIC (Australia Securities and Investment Commission)  has directed Interactive Brokers LLC (IB) to pay back roughly $1.5 million in fees and commission payments to its retail margin lending customers.

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December 18, 2014

Beware of Trading Illiquid Currencies

The experience with the Russian ruble (RUB) recently should be a stark reminder of the dangers of trading in an illiquid market. Not only can volatility spike and spreads widen to make a currency untradeable, but you also risk losing your liquidity provider. This happened this week when two forex brokers that we know of (there may be more) stopped quoting USDRUB. There is a good lesson to be learned from this experience and as I will explain, it goes beyond the USDRUB.

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December 17, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Tip: When Trading Against a Trend Don't Overstay Your Welcome

Many traders treat both sides of the market the same way, whether trading with a trend or contra (i.e. against a trend). Many traders like to fade moves and trade against a trend. This is often referred to as contra trading. When trading contra, you need to be faster to take profits than when trading with a trend as I will explain in the following video:

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December 15, 2014

ALERT: What to Expect in Yearend Trading

Yearend markets often follow a typical path but this time it has been complicated by the plunge in oil prices. This has forced global markets into a risk off mode, which has seen book squaring start earlier than usual. What is a typical year end market then and will it repeat this year?

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December 13, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of Dec 15, 2014

The dollar enters the week the last full trading week of the year on a mixed note as the plunge in oil prices has spilled over to other markets and created a risk off sentiment. Where you need to be wary is this is typically a time of year that sees book squaring and it has started a week earlier than usual. On the other side, this comes at a time that should be a perfect storm for dollar bulls,. 

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December 14, 2014

Year End Price Volatility - December 14, 2014


Daily Ranges Wider
For the past couple of years, traders, brokers and others have been bemoaning the lack of forex volatility. There is an adage about being careful what you wish for. The table below illustrates how forex volatility has picked up in the past few months. This has been mostly a return to more "normal" levels from an extended period of stability. Forex prices usually move in response to imbalances and now that economies are unevenly starting to emerge from an extended period of low growth forex markets are back in action.

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December 09, 2014

EXCLUSIVE: How to Trade a Liquidating Market

I wrote an article on liquidating markets in April with a follow up in October, Given the current price action, this is worth repeating as liquidating markets are different animals and have to be treated as such. One of my forex trading tips is to identify the market and when it goes into a liquidating mode you need to adjust accordingly. See how to trade in a liquidating market.

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December 10, 2014

What Happens to the EURUSD if Draghi Resigns?


Differences between ECB president Draghi and Germany have erupted into an open rift. This has raised questions whether the ECB will be able to deliver on QE, which most expect to happen in the first quarter of 2015. It raises the question whether Draghi can continue to lead the ECB if he cannot get his policies, which most assume to include QE, approved. It also raises the question, how would the EURUSD react if Draghi resigned.

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December 08, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of December 8, 2014

The dollar enters the week on a firm footing with the strong U.S. November employment report giving it a boost, led by a USDJPY breakout above 120. The theme of diverging economies and monetary policies continues and should continue to provide underlying support for the dollar. See my outlook for the week ahead in the following video update:

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December 07, 2014

ECB in Disarray - December 7, 2014

Who's in Charge?
ECB President Draghi disappointed the markets Thursday after the ECB policy board meeting with nothing New to announce on actions to stimulate growth in the Euro-area. There is no other major central bank in the world that would have dragged its feet for so long before acting. The problem is the structure of the ECB which is appears to be designed for inaction, because it operates on the basis of consensus decisions. Another problem is the disproportionate power Germany wields relative to the other "equal" nations in the collective. For example, we doubt that Greece has the same veto power over ECB decisions that Germany has. The divide within the central bank broke out into the open on Friday. Let's face it, the "one

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December 04, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Tip: When to Fade a Correction or Counter Trend Move

This week I have focused on trading strategies in our role as a trader advocate as the more you understand why markets move so you can put the price action in perspective, the more confidence you can have when putting on a trade. I posted a follow up article with charts and a video on Why Retracements Work and How to use Them to Trade, which proved to be very timely. Today I am following up with a video forex trading tip on when the odds favor fading a correction.

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December 02, 2014

Why Retracements Work and How to Use Them in Your Trading

Understand why markets move and it should increase your confidence when you put on a trade. One of our role’s as a traders advocate is to pass on insights that we feel will help our members in their trading journeys. In this regard, I am updating a follow up article + video I posted three weeks ago as the price action over the past two days makes this trading tip a very timely one. As you will see, this trading tip played out like a blueprint.

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December 01, 2014

Thoughts from the Forex Trenches

In the Decmber Issue

  • ECB QE: When, Not If, But?

  • Video: Forex Trading Outlook for December, 2014


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November 30, 2014

OPEC Becomes Relevant Again - November 30, 2014



No Change in Oil Supply Levels
It was not unexpected last week, but the markets reacted strongly to the OPEC decision to keep its production levels steady. OPEC complained that it has not been behind the increase in global oil supplies, but seemed to be complaining that producers such as Russia and North American producers are not about to cut their production to support OPEC producers.

Saudi Arabia clearly send a message to OPEC and others that they are not prepared to cut production on their own to support the industry. Their goal seems to be to put pressure on the high cost producers in the medium term. In the short term, that only means that oil prices should fall. This should be a global economic stimulus.

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November 25, 2014

A Thanksgiving Trading Tale

One of my forex trading tips is not to be complacent, which is easy to do in a week like this where the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is not generally one when big bets are made. You can already see forex traders resigned to a holiday week where many in the US take an extended break. This does not mean you should not stay alert as I will explain in this Thanksgiving Tale.

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November 25, 2014

Video: Forex Trading Tip: Path of Least Resistance

I am always on the lookout for whatever information i can gather that puts the current price action and the market in perspective. One way I do this is by what I call looking for the Path of least Resistance. This is one way to build confidence in a trade as I explain in this forex trading tip.

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