You are here:

All Membership Contents 2013

All

December 31, 2013

Thoughts From the Trading Trenches - January 2014

In the January Issue

More of the Same? A Look Ahead to 2014

By Jay Meisler

The coming year is likely to be another one characterized by a data dependent market given the focus on monetary policies. Most glaring is the divergence between the monetary policy currently being conducted by Japan vs. countries like the U.S. and U.K. Japan is expected to add a fresh r

Read More

December 31, 2013

How I use the Commitment of Traders Report

By John M. Bland

There has already been an open letter sent to the CFTC by Jay Meisler citing the flaws of the Commitment of Traders (CTT) Report. I agree with them all. There is no reason with current technologies that the COT Report cannot be published daily with  periodic revisions as needed.  Nevertheless we are stuck with what we've got.

Read More

December 27, 2013

Don't Trust End-of-Year Forex Forecasts

by John M. Bland

This is the traditional time of year for institutions and the financial press to release surveys of forex forecasts for the new year. While we find the surveys are interesting because they offer a snapshot of sentiment, we hasten to add that they have little, if any predictive value. What is consistent about these surveys is their poor performance.

Read More

December 26, 2013

Open Letter to the CFTC: Improve the Commitment of Traders Report (Update)

The following are replies from the CFTC to our Open Letter. We appreciate the prompt and detailed reply to our letter. We still feel that the Commitment of Traders report can be improved and plan on continuing our efforts to get it delivered in a more timely manner.

Read More

December 24, 2013

End of Year Trading: Does the Early Bird Catch the Worm?

Typically end of year forex trading is characterized by position adjustments and book squaring ahead of the Christmas break and then fresh positioning by those looking to get a head start on the New Year. The latter I refer to as early bird trading.

This year has been complicated by the FOMC decision one week before the Christmas break. The Fed announced it will start tapering its bond purchases while emphasizing forward guidance that short term interest rates will stay low for an extended period. This saw the dollar rise, bonds fall and stocks rally on a combination of the prospect of

Read More

December 21, 2013

Forex Trading Themes for the Week of December 22, 2013



Bernanke going out with a bang


We were convinced the Fed would not "taper" before the new year, but they surprised us once again. In fairness, we were not surprised by the taper itself. No one was. The only debate had been about its timing. The Fed announced a USD10bln reduction in its monthly asset purchases to USD75bln a month. The consensus opinion in and out of the Fed was that the utility of the program has run its course. Put it to bed. Importantly, the markets took the Taper decision as indication that the U.S. economy has improved to the point where it is in a self-sustained recovery. We will see if Ben Bernanke is leaving Janet Yellen with a time ready to go off.

Read More

December 20, 2013

Open Letter to the CFTC: Improve the Commitment of Traders Report

One role of the Global Traders Association is to advocate on behalf of the global trader with regulatory agencies. One of our stated goals is to work for a level playing field for the average trader. In this regard, I have written a letter to the CFTC making a suggestion to improve the reporting of the Commitment of Traders report (COT).

Read More

December 19, 2013

Ask Your Advocate: Should I Trade Bitcoins?

Question for the Advocate:

I have seen a lot of talk about Bitcoins and some forex brokers advertise trading it. Do you think it is worth pursuing for trading?

Read More

December 17, 2013

What Differentiates a Winning from a Losing Trader?

As a participant and student of the global markets for over 20 years, I have always been fascinated by what makes a trader successful and what differentiates the winners from the losers. Trading success I define as one who can consistently make money while avoiding major drawdowns...See what differentiates a wiining trader f

Read More

December 16, 2013

Ask Your Advocate - What Drives Forex Rates? (Update)

This is a follow up to Ask Your Advocate: What Drives Forex Rates? In the article, I discussed the currency bvasis swaps and the importance of short-term interest rates in driving the forex market. I came across this article and it is a real-time example of what appears to be supporting the EURUSD and EUR crosses, which is confounding many in the market.

Read More

December 14, 2013

Ask Your Advocate - What Drives Forex Rates?

Question for the Advocate:

I was reading this article, Cross-Currency Basis Swaps as a Measure of Stress in Ask Your Advocate - What Are Cross Currency Basis Swaps?

Read More

December 14, 2013

Forex Trading Themes for the Week of December 15, 2013


Fed Meeting The Highlight of the New Week

Markets spent the better part of the week just ended setting up for the Fed policy decision on Wednesday (December 18). The media is obsessed with the timing of the Fed taper decision. We all know that the central bank would like to exit from its $85 bln/mo purchase of government and mortgage-backed debt. Their concern is how to do it as quickly as possible once they judge the economy is in a self-sustained recovery. Everyone knows the Fed wants out, the only question is timing. As for timing, the vast majority of observers feel the Fed will start to "taper" their asset purchases by mid-March at the latest. The surprise would be if they do not. We do not expect the Fed t

Read More

December 12, 2013

A Case for Regulation: Probe After $70 mln Trading Loss

By Jay Meisler

Regulation works both ways, sometimes it is seen as too onerous and other times it is seen as needed to prevent situations lile this one. Those investing their funds with a third party should always investigate whether local regulations require the individual or trading firm to be registered. Ask for an audited track record when you do your due digence.This holds true for forex trading and any other market.

Read More

December 12, 2013

United States Budget Battle Looms (Continued)

By John M. Bland

The advance warning we got on a possible budget agreement appears to have been accurate with a budget vote in the House likely this week. You never know these days with party discipline not being what it once was, but it appears that that the agreement will make it through both chambers of Congress before the Christmas-New Years break.

Read More

December 11, 2013

Ask Your Advocate: What Does Tapering Mean?

Question for the advocate

I noticed there's talk of tapering the USD? I was trying to get a better understanding of the subject but hoped you had better information sources on it. I basically want to understand the subject on it own and the effect it'll have on the currency.

Read More

December 03, 2013

How the Volcker Rule May Impact Trading (Update)

paul volcker

This is a follow up to How the Voicker Rule May Impact Trading. Note the oress release (see blow) and the exemptions to the rule.

Read More

December 03, 2013

Ask Your Advocate - What Are Cross Currency Basis Swaps?

Question for the Advocate

What are cross currency basis swaps? I read that it is one reason why the euro has been bid. I would appreciate an explanation.

 

Read More

December 10, 2013

How the Volcker Rule May Impact Trading

paul volcker The following article is worth a read as the Fed, FDIC and three other agencies are due to sign off today on the ban on the Volcker Rule. The Volcker Rule has potential to affect the retail forex industry to the extent that there is any restrictions on bank market making operations. Banks act as market makers by supplying pricing to retail forex brokers who in turn use the liquidity to price markets to their clients. :

Read More

December 09, 2013

Ask Your Advocate: Forex Signal Providers – Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor = Let the Buyer Beware

Question for the Advocate:

I am having trouble making money trading and thinking about signing up with a forex signals provider. Do you think this is a good idea?

Read More

December 07, 2013

Forex Trading Themes for the Week of December 8, 2013


Solid November U.S. Jobs Data

We mentioned last week that it is looking like the global economy has been recovering. Friday saw a solid November jobs report from the U.S. I still feel the Fed will want to see more data before it starts to "taper" its Asset Purchase program. This is one of the final major pieces of data that will be released before the December 18 FOMC. As for the Fed taper decision, we do not feel the Fed will be making a major policy move before January 30, just two days before Bernanke retires. March 20 would be the first meeting with Janet Yellen at the helm. Also, the March meeting is the next time a press conference scheduled. That date would make a lot of sense to us.

Read More

Archives 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013
If you would like more in-depth information on this article and others...

Join Us Today!

The message from the founder

Click Here

Review our featured articles

Click Here

The Latest Articles
  • Brexit Worries Won’t Fade More »
  • Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist More »
  • U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish More »
  • U.S. Midterm Elections In As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday More »
  • U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure More »