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June 26, 2019

Growing Attention On The Slowing Global Economy

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Global Economy Slowing Markets continue to worry about the sluggish growth in the Eurozone, Japan and Australia. There are also growing concerns about other economies to include the U.S., Canada and several others. The pressure is most intense on the Eurozone. The core of the Eurozone, Germany has been slowing and there appears to be no hope in the short run to turn things around. The only policy tool at hand is the monetary policy of the ECB. It is hard to figure out much else it can do. At the present time it is like pushing on a string. President Draghi has pr

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June 09, 2019

ECB extends its Easy Money policy Until Mid-2020. U.S. Jobs data Weak.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com

ECB President Draghi Extends Dovish Policy to Mid-2020 In light of the ongoing weakness of the Euroarea economy, It came as no surprise to anyone that the European Central Bank extended its dovish rate guidance further in time at its policy board meeting on June 6 in Vilnius. At this meeting it announced policy actions on official policy guidance and on TLTRO (Targeted Long Term Repo Operations). First it said it now sees interest rates at present levels at least though 1H20. The ECB said this action was necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inf

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May 05, 2019

“Transitory” Replaces “Patience” The New Fed Keyword

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Fed Sends New Signals To The markets Financial Markets were not set up for the latest signals sent from the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday April 1. Dealers walked away from the press conference and policy statement saying that Fed Chair Powell had been mildly hawkish. Following several speeches by top officials from the central banks, traders had been expecting a dovish message. The bank announced a “technical” 5bp cut in IOER (interest on excess reserves) to enhance their control of the Fed Funds Rate. Chair Powell emphasized their had been no policy

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April 28, 2019

PMIs Can Be A key To Your Trading

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com

Purchasing Manager Indices Have Been Predicting A higher USD. Although the various PMI indices published each month cannot be argued to be hard data, they do provide a consistent view of the developments in key global economies. The index can run from 0 to 100 in any given month with 50 being the dividing line between economic expansion or contraction. Generally the results tend to fall between 40 and 60, and more often than not they are above 50.

An outcome below 50 is usually viewed as problematic by traders. In the chart below, I have run three month moving averages of key economies, the Eurozone, Japan, the U.S. and U.K. Moving averages are intended to smooth out month to month swings in the data and provide clearer compar

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April 04, 2019

Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 Data. Due 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com 

Average Hourly Earnings have become the top item that markets react to most in the monthly employment data. The market consensus is for a mo/mo gain of 0.20% vs. 0.40% in February. Data recently have tend to fluctuate in a range of 0.10% to 0.40%. Watch previous data for revisions. Higher earnings imply higher inflation and higher interest rates and vice versa for lower earnings. Earnings data in recent YEARS have been stubbornly low. Average Hourly Earnings

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March 31, 2019

Brexit Nowhere Near A Solution?

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com


Brexit Talks At An Impasse Uncertainty about the U.K. Brexit decision continues to hang over the markets as the U.K. Parliament remains at an impasse on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. It is looking as though Commons might vote on Brexit again on Friday, but even that is uncertain after having rejected her deal with the EU twice by large majorities. If there is a vote on Friday, expectations are it will fail for a third time barring a backroom deal with key factions that may be sitting on the fence. If PM May fails again to get her plan approve

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March 24, 2019

Fed Policy Taking New Dovish Turn. Rates Now Seen Steady

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com


Fed Sends Pre-Emptively Dovish signalsOn Wednesday March 20, markets had been prepared for uneventful Fed policy decision. First No Rata change was as expected. However the Fed “dot Plots” removed their previous forecast for two rate hikes by the end of the year to no rate changes. One hike is still priced in for 2020. As expected, the Fed revised down its economic forecasts for the next few years. They also announced that it would slow the pace of the liquidation of balance sheet holdings stating in May and indicated that it would conclude the r

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February 17, 2019

The Key To Predicting Future Fed Moves Is To Keep Your Mind and Eyes Open

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Focus On Where Central Bank Policies are headed In Medium Term In my opinion, the Powell Fed was too fast to send a dovish easing signal to the markets in January as a run of softer U.S. data got investors worried that the economy was in for an economic slowdown. Well, just as soon as the Fed signaled an easier monetary policy, a number of economic statistics indicated that the economy might have stabilized and could now even be strengthening. I applaud the new Fed Chair’s attempt at clarity, but feel he could be more effective if he was a bit more

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February 10, 2019

Central Bank Policies Mostly On Hold As Global Growth Slows

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Its an interesting time in the global financial markets with major central banks just about all with future policies on hold. This is resulting in forex trading just about on hold. The key driver for forex markets tends to be current, and market expectations for future interest rate differentials. A major driver of global interests rates often is the Fed. Chair Powell recently has been a source of money market instability due to imprecision in public comments. Hopefully he has now learned that the markets hang on every single word he utters.

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February 03, 2019

The Fed Makes a Major Monetary Policy Turn

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Major Changes In Policy One Thing You can’t say about Jerome Powell is that he is not decisive. As widely expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at its January 30 meeting. Many were predicting a dovish bias at the meeting and on this he delivered. Personally I was expecting a more neutral posture. Powell sent the message that policy is “data dependent”, but the central bank can now be patient in deciding if it needs to raise rates again. Importantly, the Fed removed from the previous policy statement the li

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January 27, 2019

U.K. Brexit Talks Apparently At An Impasse

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. Brexit Discussions Remain Center-Stage Monday of this week saw U.K. PM May present her “Plan B” to the House of Commons after “Plan A” was soundly defeated on January 15. This was an historic loss for the May government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. PM May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday January 16 which May survived. I must admit that I was not surprised that after two years of negotiations with the EU, that May appears to

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January 20, 2019

U.K. Brexit Vote Disaster For PM May

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Crunch Time For U.K. PM May And Brexit As expected, the House of Commons soundly rejected the proposed deal with the EU. This was an Historic loss for the government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. In short, May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Given her crushing defeat, Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday which May survived. She must now come up with a new plan by Monday January 21. After two years of negotiations with the EU, it is hard to imagine what she will be able to come up with next

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January 13, 2019

Fed Chair Powell Closely Watched By Markets. Brexit Coming To A Head

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Change In Policy Bias Fed Chair Powell has made several appearances recently. His comments after the December 20th rate hike had many wondering if he had misspoken when he said the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) was on autopilot. QT and rate rises are seen as two forms of simultaneous policy tightening. These words alarmed the markets at a time when many the economy saw the economy was slowing. Since then, Powell has taken every opportunity to announce to the markets that Fed policy is currently data-dependent and clearly not on

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December 14, 2018

Brexit Worries Won’t Fade

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. political Situation In DisarrayAs of a week ago, the U.K. Parliament was scheduled to vote on Tuesday December 11 on whether to proceed with the Brexit deal negotiated with the EU with PM May. Her deal apparently had no chance of passage in the Parliament as her ruling coalition does not have the necessary votes to push her program through. On Monday December 10, PM, PM May cancelled the December 11 vote because she knew that the plan would fail. By so doing, she avoided an embarrassing defeat and bought herself more time to improve the terms of the dea

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December 02, 2018

Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Reinforces Perceptions Of A Less Hawkish Fed Policy Posture After some initial skepticism, I have turned supportive of Fed Chair Powell. What has turned me around has been his real world experience. His approach has been striking me as more pragmatic than the dogmatic approach of the academic Fed economists. I have been favoring a policy pause by the Fed here for several months now. Instead, the more academically inclined members of the Fed policy board seemingly have been hell-bent on a policy normalization at any cost. Recently, there ha

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November 18, 2018

U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Brexit Dominating Trade I hesitated to write this as the U.K. Brexit situation seems to change by the minute. It appears that PM May’s Brexit plan is dead on arrival. It would surprise me if her current plan can get through the Parliament. By trying to please everyone, the plan has pleased no one. The Brexiteers want a clean break with the EU, while the Remainers want to maintain a relationship with the EU. There is not much room for compromise on this issue. The EU is taking a very hard stance for fear that others will try

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November 07, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections In As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Roughly As Expected There are always some surprises in national elections, but the consensus forecasts by the pollsters were broadly correct. As widely expected, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans strengthened their control of the Senate. It could take a while until precise numbers have been determined.

A split Congress and split government implies that the two parties will have to work together on anything they want to accomplish and the more partisan legislation that either sid

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November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

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November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

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October 28, 2018

Eurozone Flash PMIs Point To An Economic Slowdown

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Weak Flash Manufacturing PMIs in Europe Those who follow these articles will know that I am a strong supporter of the monthly PMI (purchasing Manager Index) reports. I readily acknowledge that they are not “hard” data, but they are done across a wide range of economies and use a consistent methodology every month. I like to look these for their general path on a monthly and comparative basis. I tend not to focus too sharply on the exact readings, but they do tend to tell a story over time. I prefer the manufacturing PMIs rather than the service

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The Latest Articles
  • Growing Attention On The Slowing Global Economy More »
  • ECB extends its Easy Money policy Until Mid-2020. U.S. Jobs data Weak. More »
  • “Transitory” Replaces “Patience” The New Fed Keyword More »
  • PMIs Can Be A key To Your Trading More »
  • Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 Data. Due 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT More »