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April 21, 2017

Sunday French Vote Could Be Pivotal For Euro

 

John M. Bland, MBA



French Presidential Election In Spotlight Sunday April 23 will see the first round of the French Presidential Elections. There is a long list of contenders running, but the main focus is on the top four candidates. To win, one candidate must garner 50% of the vote. If no one wins 50% of votes cast, there will be a second round contest between the two top vote getters on May 2 to determine the next President. There virtually is no chance that any candidate will garner the required 50% wit

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April 14, 2017

Key Surprises For Traders By President Trump

John M. Bland, MBA



Dollar Comments A Surprise President Trump surprised forex markets late on Wednesday when an interview with the Wall Street Journal was released. The President indicated that the USD was becoming too strong. We assume he was talking about the EURUSD pair because the dollar has been rising against the JPY ever since he became President. Furthermore, the dollar has been slipping against the Chinese Yuan due to heavy sales of U.S. securities by the Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) to support their currency. He

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April 09, 2017

What Now From The Fed and Trump?

John M. Bland, MBA



Poor March U.S. Employment Data March U.S. Employment data fell short of expectations. Non-Farm payrolls increased by only 98K vs. street expectations for an increase of +175K in the month. Some blamed a weather distortion for the poor data, but the level of job creation was less than the distortion would have implied. Average hourly earnings remained essentially flat in the month with a gain of only 0.20%, as expected. On Friday markets also had to digest a U.S. rocket attack on Syrian facilities in r

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April 02, 2017

Change In direction For The Dollar?

John M. Bland, MBA



Only Flexible Forex Traders Survive One thing most learn early in their Forex trading career is that the stubborn do not survive. One week ago, the outlook for the USD was looking pretty grim after the Trump Health Care bill effectively went down to defeat. Markets worried that his economic stimulus program could would be in shambles without the savings the new program would produce. One impact from the defeat has been a correction in stock prices and the yield on the 10-yr note has fallen from abov

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March 26, 2017

When Trading, Avoid The Crowd!

John M. Bland, MBA



Stay Away From Conventional Wisdom Often in the financial markets things things just don't work out as planned. This is not just true in forex. Most of the financial markets, such as equities, got set up long for the Trump Presidency on the promise that he would pursue policies more supportive of economic growth than previous administrations in the recent past. There was also a widespread expectation that a strong USD would ensue and would ultimately see the EURUSD fall to "parity" vs. the USD. Hopes f

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March 26, 2017

When Trading, Avoid The Crowd!

John M. Bland, MBA



Stay Away From Conventional Wisdom Often in the financial markets things things just don't work out as planned. This is not just true in forex. Most of the financial markets, such as equities, got set up long for the Trump Presidency on the promise that he would pursue policies more supportive of economic growth than previous administrations in the recent past. There was also a widespread expectation that a strong USD would ensue and would ultimately see the EURUSD fall to "parity" vs. the USD. Hopes f

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March 19, 2017

Fed Market Dominance Not Fading

John M. Bland, MBA



As Long Predicted, Fed Hikes Rates We had been predicting here a March 15 rate hike since market odds were below 20% for a Fed Funds 25bp increase. As expected, the Fed went through with a 25bp rise and left the door open to two additional hikes, conditions permitting. The target range for funds was increased from 0.50-0.75% to 0.75-1.00%. In its open market operations, the Fed tries to hit the mid-point of that range.

Financial markets are never to be satisfied. Some were disappointed that

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March 12, 2017

Creaky Monetary Policy Wheels Start To Turn

 John M. Bland, MBA

 



Markets Say Wednesday Fed Hike is A Done Deal Just over a week ago Fed Chair Yellen came as close as a top Central Bank official ever comes to pre-announcing a policy tightening. As a result, the financial markets have priced in a rate hike at the FOMC meeting this Wednesday (March 15).The prospect higher interest rates has also given the USD a bid, driven the yield on the 10-yr note to above 2.60%, and has been weight on equity prices. Equities at time can get caught in the midd

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March 05, 2017

Fed Now Signaling An Interest Rate Hike For March 15

John M. Bland, MBA



Looks Like Finally Its A "Go" As of last week, I mentioned that for well over a month here that I felt the Fed was likely to be planning to consider raising the Fed funds rate at the March 15 FOMC, conditions permitting. At that time, based on Fed Funds futures, the odds of a March hike were 38%, and in earlier weeks they were considerably lower than that. Last week, I placed my odds at 70%. By the end of the week just ending, the odds on a hike had spiked to above 90%. The market and I are finally in

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March 05, 2017

Fed Now Signaling An Interest Rate Hike For March 15

John M. Bland, MBA



Looks Like Finally Its A "Go" As of last week, I mentioned that for well over a month here that I felt the Fed was likely to be planning to consider raising the Fed funds rate at the March 15 FOMC, conditions permitting. At that time, based on Fed Funds futures, the odds of a March hike were 38%, and in earlier weeks they were considerably lower than that. Last week, I placed my odds at 70%. By the end of the week just ending, the odds on a hike had spiked to above 96%. The market and I are finally in

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February 26, 2017

Fed Minutes Never Fail To Move The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA


FOMC Minutes Impact Markets But Send No Clear Signals The Fed releases the Minutes of each policy board meeting three weeks following each decision. One would think that after its policy statement, and quarterly, a press conference, that they would say nothing new. However, Fed Chair Yellen reserves the right to include additional topics discussed at the meeting that had not otherwise been released. This means that the Fed has the ability to tweak the Minutes and bring up-to-date by including additional item

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February 19, 2017

Yellen Tries To Shift Market Sentiment About A March Hike

John M. Bland, MBA



Yellen More Hawkish Than Expected The past week was a big one for the Fed. Chair Yellen went to Capitol Hill to testify for two days. On the first day she testified before the Senate Banking Committee and on the second it was before the House. In her testimony, Yellen left the door open to a rate hike at the March 15 meeting. She also said that the Fed would consider rate hikes at future meetings. Markets generally took the tone of her comments to be more hawkish than anticipated. The only rema

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February 12, 2017

New Trump Tax Plan Impacts Markets

John M. Bland, MBA

Communication Matters New U.S. President Trump has been working hard to try control the narrative about his administration. He faces a hostile press and therefore must use other vehicles to get his message out to the electorate. His preferred communication has been social media and short snippets to the press at his frequent meetings with outside visitors to the White House. One technique he has been using is to change the subject when he is under assault for one item by making bigger news on another. Participants

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February 06, 2017

FXCM Press Release:Settles with NFA and CFTC, Exits U.S., Sells Accounts to Gain, To Pay Down Loan

February 6, 2017

FXCM US Reaches Settlement with NFA and CFTC 
FXCM to Exit the U.S. 
Sells Accounts to GAIN 
FXCM to Pay down Loan

NEW YORK, February 6, 2017-- FXCM Inc. (NASDAQ:FXCM) (“FXCM”) today announced simultaneous regulatory settlements with the National Futures Association ("NFA") and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) against its U.S. subsidiary, Forex Capital Markets LLC and certain of its principals. FXCM Holdings, LLC was also named in the CFTC settlement. The named FXCM en

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February 06, 2017

NFA bars New York retail foreign exchange dealer Forex Capital Markets, LLC and its principals Dror Niv, William Ahdout and Ornit Niv from membership

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February 05, 2017

January 2017 Employment Data Throw Markets A Curve

John M. Bland, MBA

Mixed Message For January U.S. Employment Figures The U.S. employment report for January threw the markets a curve on Friday. On the Wednesday prior to the report, the ADP private Jobs Survey indicated that the monthly employment survey could be a lot stronger than the market consensus. Earlier street estimates for non-farm payrolls had been for an increase of 175,000 in the month. As predicted by ADP, employment increased by 227,000 in the month. This is what those positioned for a strong report in the Fixed Inc

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January 31, 2017

How to Beat Your Binary Options Broker at Its Own Game

Are you looking to make money trading binary options? Do you want to see how to beat a binary broker at its own game? Are you looking to treat binary options trading as a business rather than gambling and guesswork?

If the answer is yes read the following.

Unlike forex trading where the main variable is price, binary options must take into account the time factor.  In forex trading you do not run out of time as long as your stop is not triggered. In binary trading, you can have the right idea but still lose if your option runs out of time.

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January 29, 2017

Donald Trump And Theresa May Dominate The News

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy? The other big currency overhang on the market is uncertainty over what the forex policy of the new Trump administration will be. Public communication about forex policy has to be conducted with much finesse, lest the markets misinterpret the message of the sender. Most recent U.S. governments have settled on having one well-briefed official spokesman on forex policy. This usually has been the Treasury Secretary. Even the President, typically has had little to say, if anything, on the topic

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January 22, 2017

Financial Markets Have A Number of Items To Juggle

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy?
On Friday Donald Trump was installed at the 45th President of the U.S. One top concern for currency traders is that the new administration could break with a bi-partisan policy of the U.S. (and G7) not to use forex as an economic policy tool. A tweet suggesting he might has been a new element for the markets. This prospect has rattled the markets. Subsequently his comments were "clarified" to indicate his focus was on China and possibly Mexico, and not the major G7 units. This topic

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January 15, 2017

Conventional Wisdom and The President Trump Era Is Nigh

John M. Bland, MBA

The USD traded broadly weaker late Wednesday and on Thursday, as the disappointment over the Wednesday Trump press conference carried dominated market sentiment. Nevertheless, by Friday the unit was closing well off its lows vs. the majors. Markets had been hoping to see more in the way of an the details and timing of the new administration's economic program when he takes power.

The market reaction to the Trump press conference illustrates the danger of trading on conventional wisdom. The general view in the financial press

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  • Sunday French Vote Could Be Pivotal For Euro More »
  • Key Surprises For Traders By President Trump More »
  • What Now From The Fed and Trump? More »
  • Change In direction For The Dollar? More »
  • When Trading, Avoid The Crowd! More »