You are here:

All Membership Contents

All

February 17, 2019

The Key To Predicting Future Fed Moves Is To Keep Your Mind and Eyes Open

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Focus On Where Central Bank Policies are headed In Medium Term In my opinion, the Powell Fed was too fast to send a dovish easing signal to the markets in January as a run of softer U.S. data got investors worried that the economy was in for an economic slowdown. Well, just as soon as the Fed signaled an easier monetary policy, a number of economic statistics indicated that the economy might have stabilized and could now even be strengthening. I applaud the new Fed Chair’s attempt at clarity, but feel he could be more effective if he was a bit more

Read More

February 10, 2019

Central Bank Policies Mostly On Hold As Global Growth Slows

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Its an interesting time in the global financial markets with major central banks just about all with future policies on hold. This is resulting in forex trading just about on hold. The key driver for forex markets tends to be current, and market expectations for future interest rate differentials. A major driver of global interests rates often is the Fed. Chair Powell recently has been a source of money market instability due to imprecision in public comments. Hopefully he has now learned that the markets hang on every single word he utters.

Read More

February 03, 2019

The Fed Makes a Major Monetary Policy Turn

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Major Changes In Policy One Thing You can’t say about Jerome Powell is that he is not decisive. As widely expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at its January 30 meeting. Many were predicting a dovish bias at the meeting and on this he delivered. Personally I was expecting a more neutral posture. Powell sent the message that policy is “data dependent”, but the central bank can now be patient in deciding if it needs to raise rates again. Importantly, the Fed removed from the previous policy statement the li

Read More

January 27, 2019

U.K. Brexit Talks Apparently At An Impasse

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. Brexit Discussions Remain Center-Stage Monday of this week saw U.K. PM May present her “Plan B” to the House of Commons after “Plan A” was soundly defeated on January 15. This was an historic loss for the May government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. PM May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday January 16 which May survived. I must admit that I was not surprised that after two years of negotiations with the EU, that May appears to

Read More

January 20, 2019

U.K. Brexit Vote Disaster For PM May

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Crunch Time For U.K. PM May And Brexit As expected, the House of Commons soundly rejected the proposed deal with the EU. This was an Historic loss for the government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. In short, May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Given her crushing defeat, Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday which May survived. She must now come up with a new plan by Monday January 21. After two years of negotiations with the EU, it is hard to imagine what she will be able to come up with next

Read More

January 13, 2019

Fed Chair Powell Closely Watched By Markets. Brexit Coming To A Head

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Change In Policy Bias Fed Chair Powell has made several appearances recently. His comments after the December 20th rate hike had many wondering if he had misspoken when he said the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) was on autopilot. QT and rate rises are seen as two forms of simultaneous policy tightening. These words alarmed the markets at a time when many the economy saw the economy was slowing. Since then, Powell has taken every opportunity to announce to the markets that Fed policy is currently data-dependent and clearly not on

Read More

December 14, 2018

Brexit Worries Won’t Fade

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. political Situation In DisarrayAs of a week ago, the U.K. Parliament was scheduled to vote on Tuesday December 11 on whether to proceed with the Brexit deal negotiated with the EU with PM May. Her deal apparently had no chance of passage in the Parliament as her ruling coalition does not have the necessary votes to push her program through. On Monday December 10, PM, PM May cancelled the December 11 vote because she knew that the plan would fail. By so doing, she avoided an embarrassing defeat and bought herself more time to improve the terms of the dea

Read More

December 02, 2018

Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Reinforces Perceptions Of A Less Hawkish Fed Policy Posture After some initial skepticism, I have turned supportive of Fed Chair Powell. What has turned me around has been his real world experience. His approach has been striking me as more pragmatic than the dogmatic approach of the academic Fed economists. I have been favoring a policy pause by the Fed here for several months now. Instead, the more academically inclined members of the Fed policy board seemingly have been hell-bent on a policy normalization at any cost. Recently, there ha

Read More

November 18, 2018

U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Brexit Dominating Trade I hesitated to write this as the U.K. Brexit situation seems to change by the minute. It appears that PM May’s Brexit plan is dead on arrival. It would surprise me if her current plan can get through the Parliament. By trying to please everyone, the plan has pleased no one. The Brexiteers want a clean break with the EU, while the Remainers want to maintain a relationship with the EU. There is not much room for compromise on this issue. The EU is taking a very hard stance for fear that others will try

Read More

November 07, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections In As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Roughly As Expected There are always some surprises in national elections, but the consensus forecasts by the pollsters were broadly correct. As widely expected, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans strengthened their control of the Senate. It could take a while until precise numbers have been determined.

A split Congress and split government implies that the two parties will have to work together on anything they want to accomplish and the more partisan legislation that either sid

Read More

November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

Read More

November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

Read More

October 28, 2018

Eurozone Flash PMIs Point To An Economic Slowdown

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Weak Flash Manufacturing PMIs in Europe Those who follow these articles will know that I am a strong supporter of the monthly PMI (purchasing Manager Index) reports. I readily acknowledge that they are not “hard” data, but they are done across a wide range of economies and use a consistent methodology every month. I like to look these for their general path on a monthly and comparative basis. I tend not to focus too sharply on the exact readings, but they do tend to tell a story over time. I prefer the manufacturing PMIs rather than the service

Read More

October 21, 2018

No Signs Of Brexit Fading As A Market Factor

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Brexit Talks Stalled? Headlines from the EU Brexit Summit are suggesting that negotiations between the U.K. and EU are stalled. U.K. Prime Minister May has nothing new to offer Brussels and in fact might have already offered more than she can deliver, and the EU negotiating strategy now appears to be to let talks drag on indefinitely until the U.K. reconsiders and holds a new referendum that the EU feels would not be approved. EU officials are already touting a “no-deal” Brexit Summit in November if no progress is made. They say that November 1

Read More

October 14, 2018

Fed Should Take A Breather On Policy Tightening Before It's Too Late

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. economy starting to run out of Steam? Many are increasingly worried that the U.S. economy might be starting to run out of growth momentum. They have been pointing for a while at the high end of the housing market and are noticing now that its softness is showing up at the lower price points. Additionally, the steady “normalization” of Fed policy has seen short-term rates steadily rising. At this point, it appears that the central bank has lost its fix on what the “neutral level” of Fed funds might. Once it was put at 2.50% (c

Read More

October 04, 2018

Diverging Manufacturing PMIs Raise a Red Flag For EUR Vs. USD

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Final September 2018 Manufacturing PMIs Display Strong Divergence Between EZ And U.S. PMI Survey resuls fall into the category of “soft” data, as they are not the “hard” data usually released by governmental agencies. Nevertheless, I like these reports because they are calculated on a similar basis more or less simultaneously for many individual economies. I usually compare the manufacturing series, even in Service economies, because it is tends to be more sensitive to changes in business conditions than the Service sector.
Read More

September 30, 2018

Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Draghi send Hawkish Messages

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Hikes Fed Funds Target Range By 25bps, As Expected On Wednesday, the Fed raised its Fed Funds target by 25bps to 2.00%-2.25% as the markets had fully priced in. This was a quarterly FOMC meeting, so it included a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. Also, the central bank has fallen into a pattern of changing interest rates only at the quarterly meetings. I suspect that this pattern could change some time soon. Chair Powell was upbeat on the economy. He said that the economy is strong, and that inflation is stable and that overall, the growth outlook re

Read More

September 23, 2018

Fed to hike Rates By 25bps On September 26

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Futures Markets Running Dead Certain 100% Odds on a +25bp Fed Funds Hike The silence on Fed policy has been deafening for the past month or so. If the central bank had been worried about the markets pricing in with complete certainty a 25bp rate hike at this meeting, it would have been getting the story out in the press that there are serious doubts about this outcome. The current Fed Funds target range of 1.75-2.00% will be raised to 2.00%-2.25% as the central bank attempts to get rates to what they perceive to be market neutrality of 2.50%. On this score,

Read More

September 16, 2018

ECB Steady Policy; Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Policy Steady.

ECB Steady Policy; But Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Holds Policy Steady.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Keeps Policy On Hold, but Draghi Decidedly Less Dovish As expected Thursday, the ECB kept its seven day refinancing rate steady at 0.0% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate unchanged at -0.40%. The bank reiterated that it expects key interest rates to remain at current levels until the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, b

Read More

September 16, 2018

ECB Steady Policy; Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Policy Steady.

ECB Steady Policy; But Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Holds Policy Steady.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Keeps Policy On Hold, but Draghi Decidedly Less Dovish As expected Thursday, the ECB kept its seven day refinancing rate steady at 0.0% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate unchanged at -0.40%. The bank reiterated that it expects key interest rates to remain at current levels until the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. De

Read More

Archives 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013
If you would like more in-depth information on this article and others...

Join Us Today!

The message from the founder

Click Here

Review our featured articles

Click Here

The Latest Articles
  • The Key To Predicting Future Fed Moves Is To Keep Your Mind and Eyes Open More »
  • Central Bank Policies Mostly On Hold As Global Growth Slows More »
  • The Fed Makes a Major Monetary Policy Turn More »
  • U.K. Brexit Talks Apparently At An Impasse More »
  • U.K. Brexit Vote Disaster For PM May More »