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June 17, 2018

Fed More Hawkish Than Expected. ECB Disappoints

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Eventful Fed Meeting Sees Key Changes As expected, on Wednesday, the Fed raised its target range for Fed Funds by 25bps to 1.75%-2.00%.This change had been fully priced in by the markets well ahead of time. With the rate hike already discounted, the main focus of markets was on the Fed’s the forward guidance. The Fed policy statement continued to indicate that the pace of future tightening would be “gradual” and that “further” increases are likely. The Fed has been making clear its view that it sees 2.50% to 3.00% as the “

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June 17, 2018

Fed More Hawkish Than Expected. ECB Disappoints

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Eventful Fed Meeting Sees Key Changes As expected, on Wednesday, the Fed raised its target range for Fed Funds by 25bps to 1.75%-2.00%.This change had been fully priced in by the markets well ahead of time. With the rate hike already discounted, the main focus of markets was on the Fed’s the forward guidance . The Fed policy statement continued to indicate that the pace of future tightening would be “gradual” and that “further” increases are likely. The Fed has been making clear its view that it sees 2.50% to 3.00% as the &ldquo

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June 10, 2018

Week Ahead: ECB QE Coming To A Close? Fed To Hike Rates

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


An End To European Central Bank Quantitative Easing (QE) On The Horizon? Too many voices from the European Central Bank (ECB) have been hinting about an end date for QE for this to be coincidental. Many are speculating it will be the end of the year. It smells like a communication strategy is in play to prepare the markets for such an announcement following the ECB meeting on Thursday (June 14). ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet indicated that an assessment of QE would be made at this meeting, and. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that an market expectat

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June 03, 2018

Markets Upset By Political And Economic Turmoil In Italy

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Italian Political and Financial Crisis Roils Markets Italian political instability came to the fore at the start of the latest week and at the end of the week prior. Concern mounted as two populist parties, one right-wing and the other from the left, were negotiating to form a coalition to mount the next government. One wag said it was tantamount to Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump getting together to rule. The two parties have little in common other than frustration with the political “establishment” in Italy. This frustration is directed at the E

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May 27, 2018

Fed Signals A June 13 Rate Hike, While U.K. Inflation Data Disappoints

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Dovish Tone of May 2 FOMC Minutes Disappoints USD Bulls The Fed indicated that the Fed Funds target could reach neutrality “before too long”. The day after the meeting, the Dallas Fed President Kaplan, speaking for himself, said that a Funds target range of 2.50% to 2.75% would represent "neutrality". Perhaps he might have been speaking for others?

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May 20, 2018

Dollar Breaks Higher Through a Major Psychological Turning Point

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Establishing Above 3.00% In The Ten-Year Note Yield Has Been A Critical AchievementFor the better part of the current year, forex traders have been focused on the psychological 3.00% yield in the U.S. 10-year Note. More precisely, 3.03% has been the major target for technical traders and others. Once broken, 3.030% was broken in the latest week that yield spiked higher to above 3.10%. With this goal having been achieved, I expect the focus of forex traders Focus now to shift more to the DIRECTION of yields rather than a specific level, now that there are no m

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May 13, 2018

Bank Of England’s Carney, “Mr. Excitement”

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Bank Of England Changes Market Expectations For Policy Last Thursday saw global financial markets keenly focused on the latest Bank of England policy decision. A month ago, traders had a 25bp rate hike locked into their market expectations. However just about three weeks ago Bank of England Governor Carney had sent signals to the markets that a hike at this meeting was unlikely due to an unforeseen slowdown in 1Q18 growth. Many in the markets were then feeling that Carney had only postponed a rate hike until August of this year and thus were expecting the

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May 06, 2018

Fed Less Hawkish Than Expected. U.S. April Jobs Miss

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting fell last week on May 1-2. As expected, no changes in key rates were announced following the conference. Every other Fed meeting has a press conference afterwards, and the central bank has fallen into a pattern where policy changes are only announced at the meetings with press conferences. While in theory “no-press conference meetings” can see a policy change, this has not happened yet. My hope is that every meeting at some point will include an exchange with the press. Nevertheless, every meeting sees a

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April 29, 2018

Stoic Mario Draghi Does Little Positive For Euro

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Draghi Puts A Strong Face On a Slowing EZ Economy Markets were setting up for a dovish ECB President Draghi on Thursday after the majority of analysts were saying that he would be forced to take account of what appears to be a global slowing of economic activity. Furthermore, Draghi has a reputation of being a policy dove. However, he surprised many of us as the markets had been expecting him to be more dovish in his commentary. While he acknowledged that both “hard” and “soft” data, e.g. government statistics and PMI reports, were

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April 22, 2018

Doubts About A May Bank Of England Rate Hike Mounting

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Comments by Bank Of England Carney Adjust Market Thinking About May 10 Rate Hike Bank of England Governor Mark Carney roiled financial markets late Thursday with a speech at the IMF in Washington. His comments cast doubt on a rate hike at the May 10 Bank of England meeting. While Carney said the markets should prepare for a few interest rate hikes over next few years, he warned not to get overly focused on exact timing of a rate hike and that the focus should be more about the general path of interest rates. He said there will be some differences

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April 15, 2018

Recent Eurozone PMI Data Waving A Warning Flag For ECB

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Recent Eurozone PMI Data Turning Soft I have collected Monthly Survey of Purchasing Managers (PMI) for many years. The PMI data fall into the category of soft, as opposed to hard data, on broad trends in various sectors of economies as reported by Purchasing Managers. The two major sectors surveyed are the Manufacturing and Service sectors of key economies. I prefer the Manufacturing readings, even in the Service economies, because the Manufacturing sector tends to be more sensitive to changes in the business cycle.

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April 08, 2018

Financial Markets See Extreme Price Volatility Amid U.S. China Confrontation

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Financial Markets In A Period Of VolatilityExtreme price fluctuations, mainly in U.S. equity markets, have been having impacts elsewhere for the past few weeks. A flight of funds in and out of stocks and into fixed income markets has seen the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note dip to as low as the 2.72% area just after the markets had been starting to gird for the yield on that instrument to take out the benchmark 3.00% level. Upsetting the financial markets has been a threat of a trade war instigated by the U.S. against China due to what is perceived to b

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March 25, 2018

The Federal Reserve Hikes Rates, While The Bank Of England Signals A Tightening

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


New Fed Chief Gets High Marks For His First Presser Performance As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target range for Fed Funds by 25bps to 1.50-1.75% on Wednesday March 21. With the rate hike fully priced in by the markets, the focus of traders was more on what will be coming next. Markets get an inkling about what FOMC decision-makers are expecting in the future from their quarterly “dot plots”, which are individual member forecasts of key economic parameters, including the Fed Funds rate, for the upcoming three years.

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March 18, 2018

One Two Shot in Favor of the USD from New Trump Advisor Kudlow and ECBs Draghi

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Larry Kudlow Named Chief Economic Advisor To Trump As many were expecting. President Trump named Larry Kudlow as his new Chief Economic Advisor replacing Gary Kohn, who just recently stepped down. Kudlow and Trump have had a long-term relationship so he is a known quantity to the President. Kudlow is also known as someone who can disagree with his boss without being disagreeable. Talking about his new job late Wednesday, he said he sees his role as an advisor to the President, not as a policymaker. He will give his opinions to the President candidly, but t

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March 11, 2018

ECB Subtle Policy Hint? Strong U.S. February Employment

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

One of the major rituals of the U.S., and even global financial markets is to trade on the monthly U.S. employment data released on either the first or second Friday of each month. In addition to the number of jobs added or lost in the month, the report also provides the current unemployment reading and a wealth economic statistics economist can poor over to get the latest developments in the economy.

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March 04, 2018

Fed Chair Powell Takes A Mildly Hawkish Posture In Congressional Testimony

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Tuesday Powell House Testimony Seen Hawkish; Thursday A Bit Less So New Fed Chair Powell testified before the House on Tuesday and analysts walked away with the impression that his bias would be to hike rates two to three times after they raise the target range by 25bps later this month (March 21). His focus was on the new set of projections each member will be submitting at the March 21 meeting. He said that the board would be taking into account the improvement in the economy since December.

In his Thursday Senate testimony Powell said ther

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February 25, 2018

Markets Need Policy Clarity From New Chair Powell

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Meeting Minutes Never Fail To Upset Trading Once again the latest set of Fed Minutes have been the premier event of the month. Professional Fed watchers were expecting a mildly hawkish report and that is what they got. Initially markets for reasons known only to them took the report as dovish and ran the USD lower. It may be that the algos were set wrong for the keywords? Then word must have gotten out that the report had been slightly hawkish. Obviously, the Fed has a lot of work to do to improve its communication. Its story is not filtering through.

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February 18, 2018

Dollar Worries Starting To Mount As Foreign Investors Reduce Exposures

Dollar Worries Starting To Mount As Foreign Investors Reduce Exposures

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Equity Markets Volatile With Prices Correcting Financial Markets have seen considerable turmoil in recent weeks, with Forex and Fixed income markets following the lead of equities. On Wednesday, U..S. January CPI data came in hotter than expected and solidified market expectations for a rate hike the March 21 Fed Meeting. This will be the first meeting by Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. Powell will also get a chance at this meeting his first chance to face the press. Before t

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February 11, 2018

Markets Dealing With Extreme Turmoil

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Equity Markets Volatile As Prices Correct Following an extended period with no correction, share markets finally paused after fixed income markets started to worry about rising market interest rates in the U.S. as expectations for a rising U.S. budget deficit mount. The benchmark 10-yr bond yield has decisively broken out of its previous well- worn 2.70%-2.80% fluctuation range to a new level supported at 2.80%. Late this week the 2.90% level was approached and many fell that the 3.00% line will be seen fairly soon.

As equities went through pe

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February 04, 2018

Central Banks (Fed and ECB) Continue To Roil The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Holds Rates Steady For Now To the surprise of no one, the Fed held rates steady with a Fed Funds target range of 1.25% to 1.50% on Wednesday January 31. Market odds were near zero for a rate hike beforehand. As for the next meeting on March 21, the odds strongly favor (92%) a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds target range. Wednesday was the final meeting with Janet Yellen as Fed Chair. She will be replaced by Jerome Powell shortly. The policy statement has a strong tightening bias going into Powell’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Furthermore, He is schedul

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