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May 05, 2019

“Transitory” Replaces “Patience” The New Fed Keyword

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Fed Sends New Signals To The markets Financial Markets were not set up for the latest signals sent from the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday April 1. Dealers walked away from the press conference and policy statement saying that Fed Chair Powell had been mildly hawkish. Following several speeches by top officials from the central banks, traders had been expecting a dovish message. The bank announced a “technical” 5bp cut in IOER (interest on excess reserves) to enhance their control of the Fed Funds Rate. Chair Powell emphasized their had been no policy

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April 28, 2019

PMIs Can Be A key To Your Trading

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com

Purchasing Manager Indices Have Been Predicting A higher USD. Although the various PMI indices published each month cannot be argued to be hard data, they do provide a consistent view of the developments in key global economies. The index can run from 0 to 100 in any given month with 50 being the dividing line between economic expansion or contraction. Generally the results tend to fall between 40 and 60, and more often than not they are above 50.

An outcome below 50 is usually viewed as problematic by traders. In the chart below, I have run three month moving averages of key economies, the Eurozone, Japan, the U.S. and U.K. Moving averages are intended to smooth out month to month swings in the data and provide clearer compar

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April 04, 2019

Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 Data. Due 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com 

Average Hourly Earnings have become the top item that markets react to most in the monthly employment data. The market consensus is for a mo/mo gain of 0.20% vs. 0.40% in February. Data recently have tend to fluctuate in a range of 0.10% to 0.40%. Watch previous data for revisions. Higher earnings imply higher inflation and higher interest rates and vice versa for lower earnings. Earnings data in recent YEARS have been stubbornly low. Average Hourly Earnings

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March 31, 2019

Brexit Nowhere Near A Solution?

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com


Brexit Talks At An Impasse Uncertainty about the U.K. Brexit decision continues to hang over the markets as the U.K. Parliament remains at an impasse on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal. It is looking as though Commons might vote on Brexit again on Friday, but even that is uncertain after having rejected her deal with the EU twice by large majorities. If there is a vote on Friday, expectations are it will fail for a third time barring a backroom deal with key factions that may be sitting on the fence. If PM May fails again to get her plan approve

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March 24, 2019

Fed Policy Taking New Dovish Turn. Rates Now Seen Steady

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com


Fed Sends Pre-Emptively Dovish signalsOn Wednesday March 20, markets had been prepared for uneventful Fed policy decision. First No Rata change was as expected. However the Fed “dot Plots” removed their previous forecast for two rate hikes by the end of the year to no rate changes. One hike is still priced in for 2020. As expected, the Fed revised down its economic forecasts for the next few years. They also announced that it would slow the pace of the liquidation of balance sheet holdings stating in May and indicated that it would conclude the r

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February 17, 2019

The Key To Predicting Future Fed Moves Is To Keep Your Mind and Eyes Open

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Focus On Where Central Bank Policies are headed In Medium Term In my opinion, the Powell Fed was too fast to send a dovish easing signal to the markets in January as a run of softer U.S. data got investors worried that the economy was in for an economic slowdown. Well, just as soon as the Fed signaled an easier monetary policy, a number of economic statistics indicated that the economy might have stabilized and could now even be strengthening. I applaud the new Fed Chair’s attempt at clarity, but feel he could be more effective if he was a bit more

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February 10, 2019

Central Bank Policies Mostly On Hold As Global Growth Slows

 

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Its an interesting time in the global financial markets with major central banks just about all with future policies on hold. This is resulting in forex trading just about on hold. The key driver for forex markets tends to be current, and market expectations for future interest rate differentials. A major driver of global interests rates often is the Fed. Chair Powell recently has been a source of money market instability due to imprecision in public comments. Hopefully he has now learned that the markets hang on every single word he utters.

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February 03, 2019

The Fed Makes a Major Monetary Policy Turn

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Major Changes In Policy One Thing You can’t say about Jerome Powell is that he is not decisive. As widely expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at its January 30 meeting. Many were predicting a dovish bias at the meeting and on this he delivered. Personally I was expecting a more neutral posture. Powell sent the message that policy is “data dependent”, but the central bank can now be patient in deciding if it needs to raise rates again. Importantly, the Fed removed from the previous policy statement the li

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January 27, 2019

U.K. Brexit Talks Apparently At An Impasse

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. Brexit Discussions Remain Center-Stage Monday of this week saw U.K. PM May present her “Plan B” to the House of Commons after “Plan A” was soundly defeated on January 15. This was an historic loss for the May government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. PM May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday January 16 which May survived. I must admit that I was not surprised that after two years of negotiations with the EU, that May appears to

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January 20, 2019

U.K. Brexit Vote Disaster For PM May

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Crunch Time For U.K. PM May And Brexit As expected, the House of Commons soundly rejected the proposed deal with the EU. This was an Historic loss for the government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. In short, May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Given her crushing defeat, Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday which May survived. She must now come up with a new plan by Monday January 21. After two years of negotiations with the EU, it is hard to imagine what she will be able to come up with next

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January 13, 2019

Fed Chair Powell Closely Watched By Markets. Brexit Coming To A Head

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Signals Change In Policy Bias Fed Chair Powell has made several appearances recently. His comments after the December 20th rate hike had many wondering if he had misspoken when he said the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) was on autopilot. QT and rate rises are seen as two forms of simultaneous policy tightening. These words alarmed the markets at a time when many the economy saw the economy was slowing. Since then, Powell has taken every opportunity to announce to the markets that Fed policy is currently data-dependent and clearly not on

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The Latest Articles
  • “Transitory” Replaces “Patience” The New Fed Keyword More »
  • PMIs Can Be A key To Your Trading More »
  • Preview: U.S. Jobs Report for March 2019 Data. Due 5 Apr 19 @ 12:30 GMT More »
  • Brexit Nowhere Near A Solution? More »
  • Fed Policy Taking New Dovish Turn. Rates Now Seen Steady More »