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April 22, 2018

Doubts About A May Bank Of England Rate Hike Mounting

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Comments by Bank Of England Carney Adjust Market Thinking About May 10 Rate Hike Bank of England Governor Mark Carney roiled financial markets late Thursday with a speech at the IMF in Washington. His comments cast doubt on a rate hike at the May 10 Bank of England meeting. While Carney said the markets should prepare for a few interest rate hikes over next few years, he warned not to get overly focused on exact timing of a rate hike and that the focus should be more about the general path of interest rates. He said there will be some differences

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April 15, 2018

Recent Eurozone PMI Data Waving A Warning Flag For ECB

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Recent Eurozone PMI Data Turning Soft I have collected Monthly Survey of Purchasing Managers (PMI) for many years. The PMI data fall into the category of soft, as opposed to hard data, on broad trends in various sectors of economies as reported by Purchasing Managers. The two major sectors surveyed are the Manufacturing and Service sectors of key economies. I prefer the Manufacturing readings, even in the Service economies, because the Manufacturing sector tends to be more sensitive to changes in the business cycle.

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April 08, 2018

Financial Markets See Extreme Price Volatility Amid U.S. China Confrontation

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Financial Markets In A Period Of VolatilityExtreme price fluctuations, mainly in U.S. equity markets, have been having impacts elsewhere for the past few weeks. A flight of funds in and out of stocks and into fixed income markets has seen the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note dip to as low as the 2.72% area just after the markets had been starting to gird for the yield on that instrument to take out the benchmark 3.00% level. Upsetting the financial markets has been a threat of a trade war instigated by the U.S. against China due to what is perceived to b

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March 25, 2018

The Federal Reserve Hikes Rates, While The Bank Of England Signals A Tightening

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


New Fed Chief Gets High Marks For His First Presser Performance As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target range for Fed Funds by 25bps to 1.50-1.75% on Wednesday March 21. With the rate hike fully priced in by the markets, the focus of traders was more on what will be coming next. Markets get an inkling about what FOMC decision-makers are expecting in the future from their quarterly “dot plots”, which are individual member forecasts of key economic parameters, including the Fed Funds rate, for the upcoming three years.

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March 18, 2018

One Two Shot in Favor of the USD from New Trump Advisor Kudlow and ECBs Draghi

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Larry Kudlow Named Chief Economic Advisor To Trump As many were expecting. President Trump named Larry Kudlow as his new Chief Economic Advisor replacing Gary Kohn, who just recently stepped down. Kudlow and Trump have had a long-term relationship so he is a known quantity to the President. Kudlow is also known as someone who can disagree with his boss without being disagreeable. Talking about his new job late Wednesday, he said he sees his role as an advisor to the President, not as a policymaker. He will give his opinions to the President candidly, but t

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March 11, 2018

ECB Subtle Policy Hint? Strong U.S. February Employment

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

One of the major rituals of the U.S., and even global financial markets is to trade on the monthly U.S. employment data released on either the first or second Friday of each month. In addition to the number of jobs added or lost in the month, the report also provides the current unemployment reading and a wealth economic statistics economist can poor over to get the latest developments in the economy.

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March 04, 2018

Fed Chair Powell Takes A Mildly Hawkish Posture In Congressional Testimony

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Tuesday Powell House Testimony Seen Hawkish; Thursday A Bit Less So New Fed Chair Powell testified before the House on Tuesday and analysts walked away with the impression that his bias would be to hike rates two to three times after they raise the target range by 25bps later this month (March 21). His focus was on the new set of projections each member will be submitting at the March 21 meeting. He said that the board would be taking into account the improvement in the economy since December.

In his Thursday Senate testimony Powell said ther

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February 25, 2018

Markets Need Policy Clarity From New Chair Powell

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Meeting Minutes Never Fail To Upset Trading Once again the latest set of Fed Minutes have been the premier event of the month. Professional Fed watchers were expecting a mildly hawkish report and that is what they got. Initially markets for reasons known only to them took the report as dovish and ran the USD lower. It may be that the algos were set wrong for the keywords? Then word must have gotten out that the report had been slightly hawkish. Obviously, the Fed has a lot of work to do to improve its communication. Its story is not filtering through.

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February 18, 2018

Dollar Worries Starting To Mount As Foreign Investors Reduce Exposures

Dollar Worries Starting To Mount As Foreign Investors Reduce Exposures

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Equity Markets Volatile With Prices Correcting Financial Markets have seen considerable turmoil in recent weeks, with Forex and Fixed income markets following the lead of equities. On Wednesday, U..S. January CPI data came in hotter than expected and solidified market expectations for a rate hike the March 21 Fed Meeting. This will be the first meeting by Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. Powell will also get a chance at this meeting his first chance to face the press. Before t

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February 11, 2018

Markets Dealing With Extreme Turmoil

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Equity Markets Volatile As Prices Correct Following an extended period with no correction, share markets finally paused after fixed income markets started to worry about rising market interest rates in the U.S. as expectations for a rising U.S. budget deficit mount. The benchmark 10-yr bond yield has decisively broken out of its previous well- worn 2.70%-2.80% fluctuation range to a new level supported at 2.80%. Late this week the 2.90% level was approached and many fell that the 3.00% line will be seen fairly soon.

As equities went through pe

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February 04, 2018

Central Banks (Fed and ECB) Continue To Roil The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Holds Rates Steady For Now To the surprise of no one, the Fed held rates steady with a Fed Funds target range of 1.25% to 1.50% on Wednesday January 31. Market odds were near zero for a rate hike beforehand. As for the next meeting on March 21, the odds strongly favor (92%) a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds target range. Wednesday was the final meeting with Janet Yellen as Fed Chair. She will be replaced by Jerome Powell shortly. The policy statement has a strong tightening bias going into Powell’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Furthermore, He is schedul

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January 28, 2018

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Bombshell Sets Stage For Forex Volatility -- UPDATED

UPDATE: I have left the report below as written even after President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin said that Mnuchin’s comments had been taken out of context. I heard his comments directly when spoken several times. His initial comments were perfectly clear and needed no clarification. My best guess is that the Administration got considerable push back from senior financial market players at home and officials overseas over this new forex policy. My best guess is that we revert to the pre-existing policy of “benign neglect” of any USD weakness, with no overt encouragement of additional weakness

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January 21, 2018

“Dovish” Bank of Canada Policy Tightening. ECB Meeting Thursday Could Be Revealing

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Bank Of Canada Raises Rates As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its target rate for overnight funds to 1.25% by 25bps from 1.00%. In his press conference afterwards, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said that the rate rise “'validates” data we have seen and that it was not a “no brainer”. Furthermore he said "Today we have more room than we did a year ago; with economy in such good health, we are confident we can continue to build on this". He warned that we cannot assume the end of NAFTA would be only a small shock, but

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January 14, 2018

Central Banks Abandoning Overly Easy Monetary Policies And Upset Market Status Quo

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Quantitative Easing Bombshell The ECB recently started to publish the Minutes of their policy meetings three weeks afterwards, and up until the latest week they have ben inconsequential. That changed on Thursday when it was reported that the central bank could consider shift in policy guidance from early 2018. The comments suggested that the ECB discussed moving further away from excessive monetary support for the economy more quickly that generally assumed. Many feel the ECB has been overstaying its support of the Eurozone economy. In response to this hi

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January 07, 2018

Why Higher Fed Rates Haven’t Helped the Dollar

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


USD Not Responding Positively to Higher Fed Funds Target  The prospect of a tighter Fed policy during the second half of 2017 and into the new year has not been providing the USD with the support that we might have expected. We have been scratching our heads about this since forex markets usually are driven by short-term interest rates. The Fed has increased the top end of the range on Fed funds by 100 bp from early December 2016 until the final FOMC meeting of 2017. In the same time period, the yield on the 10-yr yield has been virtually unchanged

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December 17, 2017

Janet Yellen and The Fed Do Not Disappoint The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, global-View.com


Fed Raises Fed Funds Target By 25bps  On Wednesday December 13, the FOMC announced a +25bp hike in its Fed Funds target range to 1.25-1.50% from 1.00-1.25%. This hike was as widely expected, after having been signaled by the Fed. The Fed also released its quarterly “dot plots” forecasts for the Fed Funds rate in 2018. It showed members of the committee as a group were expecting three rate hikes in the new year. Many in the markets had been expecting these forecasts might show four rate hikes. As for the Fed Funds futures markets,

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December 10, 2017

Busy Week Ahead For Major Central Banks. Fed Rate Hike Widely Expected

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, global-View.com


Fed Hike a Done Deal  The financial markets have already priced in a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week (December 13) with the target range for Fed funds moving higher from 1.00-1.25% to 1.25 to 1.50%. Given that this move is widely discounted, it is difficult to guess how the markets will react to this decision. Markets are always forward looking, but we have to wonder if Fed Chair Yellen will want to hamstring Fed Chair designate Jerome Powell with a a forward rate hike signal in addition to a rates hike before he comes into office early next

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December 03, 2017

Global Economic Recovery Building Steam. New Fed Chief A Dove?

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, global-View.com


Economic Growth Accelerating Forex markets are in a state of flux as global economic activity appears to be gaining steam. This recovery has been uneven, and this lack of consistency has been reflected in a volatile lead EURUSD forex relationship. From early August until now, the EURUSD pair has traded a rough 1.1550 to 1.2100 range and it appears at the present time that the EURUSD is preparing for a run at the top of this range (1.2093). While financial officials generally keep mum about specific forex trading levels, we have been hearing pretty consistentl

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November 19, 2017

Market Seasonality And The British Pound Remains in the Spotlight

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, global-View.com


Seasonality In Forex Activity Forex trading has always been marked by strong seasonality. Following the arrival of the robots, some of the seasonality has been diminished. Nevertheless, end of month and end of quarter trading still have their special characteristics. The end of the calendar year, which is characterized by end of year for many financial statements and a number of global holidays tends to see institutions, such as central banks, trying to get decisions out of the way so that their profile is reduced in the final half of December and into th

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November 12, 2017

Continuity In New Fed Chair. The British Pound Bears Watching

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, global-View.com


Period Of Calm In Forex Trading? Markets have moved into a quiet period in the latest week as most of the current market uncertainties around the USD have lifted. Money markets are indicating now that a 25bp hike in the Fed Funds target range from 1.00-1.25% to 1.25-1.50% is a near certainty at the December 13 FOMC. Most money market economists are predicting a hike, and Fed Funds futures contracts are placing a near 90% probability on a rate hike at that conference.

Furthermore, the Trump Administration has made its selection for the next

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