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March 19, 2017

Fed Market Dominance Not Fading

John M. Bland, MBA



As Long Predicted, Fed Hikes Rates We had been predicting here a March 15 rate hike since market odds were below 20% for a Fed Funds 25bp increase. As expected, the Fed went through with a 25bp rise and left the door open to two additional hikes, conditions permitting. The target range for funds was increased from 0.50-0.75% to 0.75-1.00%. In its open market operations, the Fed tries to hit the mid-point of that range.

Financial markets are never to be satisfied. Some were disappointed that

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March 12, 2017

Creaky Monetary Policy Wheels Start To Turn

 John M. Bland, MBA

 



Markets Say Wednesday Fed Hike is A Done Deal Just over a week ago Fed Chair Yellen came as close as a top Central Bank official ever comes to pre-announcing a policy tightening. As a result, the financial markets have priced in a rate hike at the FOMC meeting this Wednesday (March 15).The prospect higher interest rates has also given the USD a bid, driven the yield on the 10-yr note to above 2.60%, and has been weight on equity prices. Equities at time can get caught in the midd

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March 05, 2017

Fed Now Signaling An Interest Rate Hike For March 15

John M. Bland, MBA



Looks Like Finally Its A "Go" As of last week, I mentioned that for well over a month here that I felt the Fed was likely to be planning to consider raising the Fed funds rate at the March 15 FOMC, conditions permitting. At that time, based on Fed Funds futures, the odds of a March hike were 38%, and in earlier weeks they were considerably lower than that. Last week, I placed my odds at 70%. By the end of the week just ending, the odds on a hike had spiked to above 90%. The market and I are finally in

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March 05, 2017

Fed Now Signaling An Interest Rate Hike For March 15

John M. Bland, MBA



Looks Like Finally Its A "Go" As of last week, I mentioned that for well over a month here that I felt the Fed was likely to be planning to consider raising the Fed funds rate at the March 15 FOMC, conditions permitting. At that time, based on Fed Funds futures, the odds of a March hike were 38%, and in earlier weeks they were considerably lower than that. Last week, I placed my odds at 70%. By the end of the week just ending, the odds on a hike had spiked to above 96%. The market and I are finally in

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February 26, 2017

Fed Minutes Never Fail To Move The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA


FOMC Minutes Impact Markets But Send No Clear Signals The Fed releases the Minutes of each policy board meeting three weeks following each decision. One would think that after its policy statement, and quarterly, a press conference, that they would say nothing new. However, Fed Chair Yellen reserves the right to include additional topics discussed at the meeting that had not otherwise been released. This means that the Fed has the ability to tweak the Minutes and bring up-to-date by including additional item

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February 19, 2017

Yellen Tries To Shift Market Sentiment About A March Hike

John M. Bland, MBA



Yellen More Hawkish Than Expected The past week was a big one for the Fed. Chair Yellen went to Capitol Hill to testify for two days. On the first day she testified before the Senate Banking Committee and on the second it was before the House. In her testimony, Yellen left the door open to a rate hike at the March 15 meeting. She also said that the Fed would consider rate hikes at future meetings. Markets generally took the tone of her comments to be more hawkish than anticipated. The only rema

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February 12, 2017

New Trump Tax Plan Impacts Markets

John M. Bland, MBA

Communication Matters New U.S. President Trump has been working hard to try control the narrative about his administration. He faces a hostile press and therefore must use other vehicles to get his message out to the electorate. His preferred communication has been social media and short snippets to the press at his frequent meetings with outside visitors to the White House. One technique he has been using is to change the subject when he is under assault for one item by making bigger news on another. Participants

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February 06, 2017

FXCM Press Release:Settles with NFA and CFTC, Exits U.S., Sells Accounts to Gain, To Pay Down Loan

February 6, 2017

FXCM US Reaches Settlement with NFA and CFTC 
FXCM to Exit the U.S. 
Sells Accounts to GAIN 
FXCM to Pay down Loan

NEW YORK, February 6, 2017-- FXCM Inc. (NASDAQ:FXCM) (“FXCM”) today announced simultaneous regulatory settlements with the National Futures Association ("NFA") and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) against its U.S. subsidiary, Forex Capital Markets LLC and certain of its principals. FXCM Holdings, LLC was also named in the CFTC settlement. The named FXCM en

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February 06, 2017

NFA bars New York retail foreign exchange dealer Forex Capital Markets, LLC and its principals Dror Niv, William Ahdout and Ornit Niv from membership

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February 05, 2017

January 2017 Employment Data Throw Markets A Curve

John M. Bland, MBA

Mixed Message For January U.S. Employment Figures The U.S. employment report for January threw the markets a curve on Friday. On the Wednesday prior to the report, the ADP private Jobs Survey indicated that the monthly employment survey could be a lot stronger than the market consensus. Earlier street estimates for non-farm payrolls had been for an increase of 175,000 in the month. As predicted by ADP, employment increased by 227,000 in the month. This is what those positioned for a strong report in the Fixed Inc

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January 31, 2017

How to Beat Your Binary Options Broker at Its Own Game

Are you looking to make money trading binary options? Do you want to see how to beat a binary broker at its own game? Are you looking to treat binary options trading as a business rather than gambling and guesswork?

If the answer is yes read the following.

Unlike forex trading where the main variable is price, binary options must take into account the time factor.  In forex trading you do not run out of time as long as your stop is not triggered. In binary trading, you can have the right idea but still lose if your option runs out of time.

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January 29, 2017

Donald Trump And Theresa May Dominate The News

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy? The other big currency overhang on the market is uncertainty over what the forex policy of the new Trump administration will be. Public communication about forex policy has to be conducted with much finesse, lest the markets misinterpret the message of the sender. Most recent U.S. governments have settled on having one well-briefed official spokesman on forex policy. This usually has been the Treasury Secretary. Even the President, typically has had little to say, if anything, on the topic

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January 22, 2017

Financial Markets Have A Number of Items To Juggle

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy?
On Friday Donald Trump was installed at the 45th President of the U.S. One top concern for currency traders is that the new administration could break with a bi-partisan policy of the U.S. (and G7) not to use forex as an economic policy tool. A tweet suggesting he might has been a new element for the markets. This prospect has rattled the markets. Subsequently his comments were "clarified" to indicate his focus was on China and possibly Mexico, and not the major G7 units. This topic

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January 15, 2017

Conventional Wisdom and The President Trump Era Is Nigh

John M. Bland, MBA

The USD traded broadly weaker late Wednesday and on Thursday, as the disappointment over the Wednesday Trump press conference carried dominated market sentiment. Nevertheless, by Friday the unit was closing well off its lows vs. the majors. Markets had been hoping to see more in the way of an the details and timing of the new administration's economic program when he takes power.

The market reaction to the Trump press conference illustrates the danger of trading on conventional wisdom. The general view in the financial press

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January 08, 2017

Bank of China Actions To Stabilize the Yuan Weighing On USD

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Policy Minutes send conflicting messages
The two most salient items in their notes seemed to be that they feel that increased fiscal stimulus by the incoming Trump administration should likely cause the FOMC to raise its economic growth forecasts. That suggests that the future path for interest rates might have to be adjusted higher. They also worried that a higher USD could be a restraint on inflation. Since the Fed targets employment and inflation, consistently missing to the downside its inflation target

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December 18, 2016

Fed Surprises The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA




 

Markets Unprepared For Fed The capacity for the financial markets to surprise me has no limits. I felt U.S. markets should have been set up for months for the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. but apparently they were not. The Fed had signaled a rate hike in December for months, and as universally expected, the FOMC raised the mid-point of its 0.25%-0.50% target range (0.375%) for Fed Funds by 25bps to 0.50% to 0.75% (0.625%). Curiously into the Fed decision the EURUSD h

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December 11, 2016

Draghi: When Is A Taper Not A Taper?

John M. Bland, MBA

ECB Announces A reduction In Asset Purchases

What might have been a conflicted European Central Bank surprised the Forex Markets Thursday by announcing a policy "tapering" which was NOT a "tapering". As widely anticipated, key interest rates were left unchanged, but the central bank announced that it would reduce its monthly asset purchases starting in April 2017 to EUR 60bn from the current EUR80bn level. Asset purchases will continue at the new monthly EUR60bn level until the end of 2017. ECB Pres

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December 04, 2016

Watch Out: Trump Is Now On The Scene

John M. Bland, MBA

Trump Arrival Boosts Confidence
The arrival of Donald Trump as President-Elect has not been a subdued event for the financial markets. Investors have been pricing in great things for the economy, perhaps some are unrealistic and it may be that they have gotten ahead of themselves. One of the first things a new President learns is how little power he has when it comes to pushing his legislation through the Congress. Fortunately for Trump, the U.S. economy was already starting to build forward momentum before

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November 27, 2016

U.S. In Transition

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Chair Yellen Confirms Rate Hike
Markets are adjusting to the reality of a Trump Presidency, however a few of his second-tier opponents have started a campaign for a vote recount in a few of the key battleground states. These create a little uncertainty but are unlikely to change the overall results. At this juncture, Hillary Clinton is not behind the effort. Otherwise, President-elect Trump is working hard at hiring his new government. Under the U.S. system, most of the key jobs must be refilled when a

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November 20, 2016

Double-Edged Sword: Yellen And Trump Drive Dollar And Bond Yields Higher

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Chair Yellen Confirms Rate Hike
In testimony to a joint committee of the House and Senate, Fed Chair Yellen signaled that the central bank will likely be hiking its Fed Funds target by 25bps to a range of 0.50% to 0.75% on December 14. Although she was not explicit, in the context of her testimony the markets interpreted her comments as a clear rate hike signal. A rate hike had not been in doubt even before Donald Trump had beaten Hillary Clinton for President. However the view at that time was that it

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  • Fed Market Dominance Not Fading More »
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  • Fed Now Signaling An Interest Rate Hike For March 15 More »
  • Fed Minutes Never Fail To Move The Markets More »