You are here:

Advocacy Articles

Articles

February 19, 2017

Yellen Tries To Shift Market Sentiment About A March Hike

John M. Bland, MBA



Yellen More Hawkish Than Expected The past week was a big one for the Fed. Chair Yellen went to Capitol Hill to testify for two days. On the first day she testified before the Senate Banking Committee and on the second it was before the House. In her testimony, Yellen left the door open to a rate hike at the March 15 meeting. She also said that the Fed would consider rate hikes at future meetings. Markets generally took the tone of her comments to be more hawkish than anticipated. The only rema

Read More

February 12, 2017

New Trump Tax Plan Impacts Markets

John M. Bland, MBA

Communication Matters New U.S. President Trump has been working hard to try control the narrative about his administration. He faces a hostile press and therefore must use other vehicles to get his message out to the electorate. His preferred communication has been social media and short snippets to the press at his frequent meetings with outside visitors to the White House. One technique he has been using is to change the subject when he is under assault for one item by making bigger news on another. Participants

Read More

February 06, 2017

FXCM Press Release:Settles with NFA and CFTC, Exits U.S., Sells Accounts to Gain, To Pay Down Loan

February 6, 2017

FXCM US Reaches Settlement with NFA and CFTC 
FXCM to Exit the U.S. 
Sells Accounts to GAIN 
FXCM to Pay down Loan

NEW YORK, February 6, 2017-- FXCM Inc. (NASDAQ:FXCM) (“FXCM”) today announced simultaneous regulatory settlements with the National Futures Association ("NFA") and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) against its U.S. subsidiary, Forex Capital Markets LLC and certain of its principals. FXCM Holdings, LLC was also named in the CFTC settlement. The named FXCM en

Read More

February 06, 2017

NFA bars New York retail foreign exchange dealer Forex Capital Markets, LLC and its principals Dror Niv, William Ahdout and Ornit Niv from membership

Read More

February 05, 2017

January 2017 Employment Data Throw Markets A Curve

John M. Bland, MBA

Mixed Message For January U.S. Employment Figures The U.S. employment report for January threw the markets a curve on Friday. On the Wednesday prior to the report, the ADP private Jobs Survey indicated that the monthly employment survey could be a lot stronger than the market consensus. Earlier street estimates for non-farm payrolls had been for an increase of 175,000 in the month. As predicted by ADP, employment increased by 227,000 in the month. This is what those positioned for a strong report in the Fixed Inc

Read More

January 31, 2017

How to Beat Your Binary Options Broker at Its Own Game

Are you looking to make money trading binary options? Do you want to see how to beat a binary broker at its own game? Are you looking to treat binary options trading as a business rather than gambling and guesswork?

If the answer is yes read the following.

Unlike forex trading where the main variable is price, binary options must take into account the time factor.  In forex trading you do not run out of time as long as your stop is not triggered. In binary trading, you can have the right idea but still lose if your option runs out of time.

Read More

January 29, 2017

Donald Trump And Theresa May Dominate The News

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy? The other big currency overhang on the market is uncertainty over what the forex policy of the new Trump administration will be. Public communication about forex policy has to be conducted with much finesse, lest the markets misinterpret the message of the sender. Most recent U.S. governments have settled on having one well-briefed official spokesman on forex policy. This usually has been the Treasury Secretary. Even the President, typically has had little to say, if anything, on the topic

Read More

January 22, 2017

Financial Markets Have A Number of Items To Juggle

John M. Bland, MBA

New USD Forex Policy?
On Friday Donald Trump was installed at the 45th President of the U.S. One top concern for currency traders is that the new administration could break with a bi-partisan policy of the U.S. (and G7) not to use forex as an economic policy tool. A tweet suggesting he might has been a new element for the markets. This prospect has rattled the markets. Subsequently his comments were "clarified" to indicate his focus was on China and possibly Mexico, and not the major G7 units. This topic

Read More

January 15, 2017

Conventional Wisdom and The President Trump Era Is Nigh

John M. Bland, MBA

The USD traded broadly weaker late Wednesday and on Thursday, as the disappointment over the Wednesday Trump press conference carried dominated market sentiment. Nevertheless, by Friday the unit was closing well off its lows vs. the majors. Markets had been hoping to see more in the way of an the details and timing of the new administration's economic program when he takes power.

The market reaction to the Trump press conference illustrates the danger of trading on conventional wisdom. The general view in the financial press

Read More

January 08, 2017

Bank of China Actions To Stabilize the Yuan Weighing On USD

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Policy Minutes send conflicting messages
The two most salient items in their notes seemed to be that they feel that increased fiscal stimulus by the incoming Trump administration should likely cause the FOMC to raise its economic growth forecasts. That suggests that the future path for interest rates might have to be adjusted higher. They also worried that a higher USD could be a restraint on inflation. Since the Fed targets employment and inflation, consistently missing to the downside its inflation target

Read More

December 18, 2016

Fed Surprises The Markets

John M. Bland, MBA




 

Markets Unprepared For Fed The capacity for the financial markets to surprise me has no limits. I felt U.S. markets should have been set up for months for the Fed policy decision on Wednesday. but apparently they were not. The Fed had signaled a rate hike in December for months, and as universally expected, the FOMC raised the mid-point of its 0.25%-0.50% target range (0.375%) for Fed Funds by 25bps to 0.50% to 0.75% (0.625%). Curiously into the Fed decision the EURUSD h

Read More

December 11, 2016

Draghi: When Is A Taper Not A Taper?

John M. Bland, MBA

ECB Announces A reduction In Asset Purchases

What might have been a conflicted European Central Bank surprised the Forex Markets Thursday by announcing a policy "tapering" which was NOT a "tapering". As widely anticipated, key interest rates were left unchanged, but the central bank announced that it would reduce its monthly asset purchases starting in April 2017 to EUR 60bn from the current EUR80bn level. Asset purchases will continue at the new monthly EUR60bn level until the end of 2017. ECB Pres

Read More

December 04, 2016

Watch Out: Trump Is Now On The Scene

John M. Bland, MBA

Trump Arrival Boosts Confidence
The arrival of Donald Trump as President-Elect has not been a subdued event for the financial markets. Investors have been pricing in great things for the economy, perhaps some are unrealistic and it may be that they have gotten ahead of themselves. One of the first things a new President learns is how little power he has when it comes to pushing his legislation through the Congress. Fortunately for Trump, the U.S. economy was already starting to build forward momentum before

Read More

November 27, 2016

U.S. In Transition

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Chair Yellen Confirms Rate Hike
Markets are adjusting to the reality of a Trump Presidency, however a few of his second-tier opponents have started a campaign for a vote recount in a few of the key battleground states. These create a little uncertainty but are unlikely to change the overall results. At this juncture, Hillary Clinton is not behind the effort. Otherwise, President-elect Trump is working hard at hiring his new government. Under the U.S. system, most of the key jobs must be refilled when a

Read More

November 20, 2016

Double-Edged Sword: Yellen And Trump Drive Dollar And Bond Yields Higher

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Chair Yellen Confirms Rate Hike
In testimony to a joint committee of the House and Senate, Fed Chair Yellen signaled that the central bank will likely be hiking its Fed Funds target by 25bps to a range of 0.50% to 0.75% on December 14. Although she was not explicit, in the context of her testimony the markets interpreted her comments as a clear rate hike signal. A rate hike had not been in doubt even before Donald Trump had beaten Hillary Clinton for President. However the view at that time was that it

Read More

November 13, 2016

Trump Turns Conventional Wisdom On Its Head

John M. Bland, MBA

Trump Presidency
When markets closed Tuesday in North America traders were expecting an early evening with Hillary Clinton expected to be well on her way to the Presidency after polls closed in the Eastern time zone. Most of the states that were in play are in the East and Middle-West. Fairly early on it soon became evident that the vote was not coming in the way political pollsters had predicted. In the end, this was a historic Brexit-like event for the U.S., where populist sentime

Read More

November 06, 2016

Three Ring Circus: Election, Fed and Brexit

John M. Bland, MBA

Election, Jobs And Fed
Obviously the major event of the week ahead will be the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. At this juncture, it appears that Hillary Clinton is in the lead, but the vote is still shrouded in uncertainty. The market reaction to the outcome should be driven by the amount of uncertainty it generates.

The October U.S. employment beat expectations when revisions to prior data were taken into account. Also the key Average Hourly Ea

Read More

October 30, 2016

Sterling Back To Center-Stage

John M. Bland, MBA

U.K. Developments
Developments in the U.K. have continued to dominate trade in the latest week. A major event was House of Lords Economic Committee testimony Tuesday by Bank of England Governor Carney, who did not send the signal for a rate cut that many in the markets had been hoping for. His comments implied that an early rate cut is improbable in light of the GBP slide after the Brexit vote. He said there were limits to the central bank's ability to overlook the effect of the steep slide, about 18% since

Read More

October 23, 2016

U.K. Brexit Nears Another Decision Point

PM May Confronts Brexit

John M. Bland, MBA

While the U.K. Brexit vote seemingly was settled back in June, there remains a lot of interest in the topic because we all knew the "devil was going to be in the details". New U.K. PM May was quietly against Brexit before the referendum, but has been forced to embrace if due to political realities. The issue now is how she will navigate the U.K. exit from the EU with her party each day taking a harder stance on exit and therefore keeping her feet to the fire. The chatter has been that May would have preferred to pursue a "soft" Brexit, but

Read More

October 16, 2016

Fed Policy Back In Play Once Again

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Policy Resolve Softening?
The latest week saw the release of Meeting Minutes for the September 14 FOMC Conference. From my perspective, policy Minutes were a jumble. I had been expecting a clear tightening bias and the central bank seemed to be backing away modestly from its previous aggressive hawkish posture vis-a-vis a December rate hike. One thing that markets do not focus on much these days is that the U.S. central bank has a unique twin policy mandate. It is charged with maintaining full-emp

Read More

Archives 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013
If you would like more in-depth information on this article and others...

Join Us Today!

The message from the founder

Click Here

Review our featured articles

Click Here

The Latest Articles
  • Yellen Tries To Shift Market Sentiment About A March Hike More »
  • New Trump Tax Plan Impacts Markets More »
  • FXCM Press Release:Settles with NFA and CFTC, Exits U.S., Sells Accounts to Gain, To Pay Down Loan More »
  • NFA bars New York retail foreign exchange dealer Forex Capital Markets, LLC and its principals Dror Niv, William Ahdout and Ornit Niv from membership More »
  • January 2017 Employment Data Throw Markets A Curve More »