You are here:

Advocacy Articles

Articles

December 14, 2018

Brexit Worries Won’t Fade

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.K. political Situation In DisarrayAs of a week ago, the U.K. Parliament was scheduled to vote on Tuesday December 11 on whether to proceed with the Brexit deal negotiated with the EU with PM May. Her deal apparently had no chance of passage in the Parliament as her ruling coalition does not have the necessary votes to push her program through. On Monday December 10, PM, PM May cancelled the December 11 vote because she knew that the plan would fail. By so doing, she avoided an embarrassing defeat and bought herself more time to improve the terms of the dea

Read More

December 02, 2018

Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Chair Powell Reinforces Perceptions Of A Less Hawkish Fed Policy Posture After some initial skepticism, I have turned supportive of Fed Chair Powell. What has turned me around has been his real world experience. His approach has been striking me as more pragmatic than the dogmatic approach of the academic Fed economists. I have been favoring a policy pause by the Fed here for several months now. Instead, the more academically inclined members of the Fed policy board seemingly have been hell-bent on a policy normalization at any cost. Recently, there ha

Read More

November 18, 2018

U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com

Brexit Dominating Trade I hesitated to write this as the U.K. Brexit situation seems to change by the minute. It appears that PM May’s Brexit plan is dead on arrival. It would surprise me if her current plan can get through the Parliament. By trying to please everyone, the plan has pleased no one. The Brexiteers want a clean break with the EU, while the Remainers want to maintain a relationship with the EU. There is not much room for compromise on this issue. The EU is taking a very hard stance for fear that others will try

Read More

November 07, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections In As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Roughly As Expected There are always some surprises in national elections, but the consensus forecasts by the pollsters were broadly correct. As widely expected, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans strengthened their control of the Senate. It could take a while until precise numbers have been determined.

A split Congress and split government implies that the two parties will have to work together on anything they want to accomplish and the more partisan legislation that either sid

Read More

November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

Read More

November 04, 2018

U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Seen As Negative For President Trump Market pundits typically overestimate the market impact of U.S. election results. As of the current time, the consensus forecast is that the Republican Party will hold onto control of the Senate, but will lose its control of the House of Representatives. The key question now is how the Democrats would handle such a victory. Odds are they will spend the next two years launching a series of investigations and trying to set up set their Presidential campaign for 2020, rather than working with Presi

Read More

October 28, 2018

Eurozone Flash PMIs Point To An Economic Slowdown

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Weak Flash Manufacturing PMIs in Europe Those who follow these articles will know that I am a strong supporter of the monthly PMI (purchasing Manager Index) reports. I readily acknowledge that they are not “hard” data, but they are done across a wide range of economies and use a consistent methodology every month. I like to look these for their general path on a monthly and comparative basis. I tend not to focus too sharply on the exact readings, but they do tend to tell a story over time. I prefer the manufacturing PMIs rather than the service

Read More

October 21, 2018

No Signs Of Brexit Fading As A Market Factor

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Brexit Talks Stalled? Headlines from the EU Brexit Summit are suggesting that negotiations between the U.K. and EU are stalled. U.K. Prime Minister May has nothing new to offer Brussels and in fact might have already offered more than she can deliver, and the EU negotiating strategy now appears to be to let talks drag on indefinitely until the U.K. reconsiders and holds a new referendum that the EU feels would not be approved. EU officials are already touting a “no-deal” Brexit Summit in November if no progress is made. They say that November 1

Read More

October 14, 2018

Fed Should Take A Breather On Policy Tightening Before It's Too Late

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. economy starting to run out of Steam? Many are increasingly worried that the U.S. economy might be starting to run out of growth momentum. They have been pointing for a while at the high end of the housing market and are noticing now that its softness is showing up at the lower price points. Additionally, the steady “normalization” of Fed policy has seen short-term rates steadily rising. At this point, it appears that the central bank has lost its fix on what the “neutral level” of Fed funds might. Once it was put at 2.50% (c

Read More

October 04, 2018

Diverging Manufacturing PMIs Raise a Red Flag For EUR Vs. USD

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Final September 2018 Manufacturing PMIs Display Strong Divergence Between EZ And U.S. PMI Survey resuls fall into the category of “soft” data, as they are not the “hard” data usually released by governmental agencies. Nevertheless, I like these reports because they are calculated on a similar basis more or less simultaneously for many individual economies. I usually compare the manufacturing series, even in Service economies, because it is tends to be more sensitive to changes in business conditions than the Service sector.
Read More

September 30, 2018

Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Draghi send Hawkish Messages

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Fed Hikes Fed Funds Target Range By 25bps, As Expected On Wednesday, the Fed raised its Fed Funds target by 25bps to 2.00%-2.25% as the markets had fully priced in. This was a quarterly FOMC meeting, so it included a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. Also, the central bank has fallen into a pattern of changing interest rates only at the quarterly meetings. I suspect that this pattern could change some time soon. Chair Powell was upbeat on the economy. He said that the economy is strong, and that inflation is stable and that overall, the growth outlook re

Read More

September 23, 2018

Fed to hike Rates By 25bps On September 26

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Futures Markets Running Dead Certain 100% Odds on a +25bp Fed Funds Hike The silence on Fed policy has been deafening for the past month or so. If the central bank had been worried about the markets pricing in with complete certainty a 25bp rate hike at this meeting, it would have been getting the story out in the press that there are serious doubts about this outcome. The current Fed Funds target range of 1.75-2.00% will be raised to 2.00%-2.25% as the central bank attempts to get rates to what they perceive to be market neutrality of 2.50%. On this score,

Read More

September 16, 2018

ECB Steady Policy; Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Policy Steady.

ECB Steady Policy; But Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Holds Policy Steady.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Keeps Policy On Hold, but Draghi Decidedly Less Dovish As expected Thursday, the ECB kept its seven day refinancing rate steady at 0.0% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate unchanged at -0.40%. The bank reiterated that it expects key interest rates to remain at current levels until the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, b

Read More

September 16, 2018

ECB Steady Policy; Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Policy Steady.

ECB Steady Policy; But Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Holds Policy Steady.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Keeps Policy On Hold, but Draghi Decidedly Less Dovish As expected Thursday, the ECB kept its seven day refinancing rate steady at 0.0% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate unchanged at -0.40%. The bank reiterated that it expects key interest rates to remain at current levels until the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. De

Read More

September 09, 2018

Bank Of Canada Holds Policy Steady; Signals October Hike


Bank Of Canada Leaves Key Target Rate Steady At 1.50% On Wednesday, as expected, the Bank of Canada left policy unchanged. There was a slightly dovish tone to the latest policy statement, but the central bank said that recent data reinforces the view that higher rates will be warranted. We recently saw Governor Polotz at the Jackson Hole conference interviewed on television seeming to imply that the Bank of Canada was comfortable following the lead of the Fed. Markets have already priced in a 25bp Fed rate hike this month (September 26) with near certain odds. At the time of the interview, markets were still digesting the July Canadian inflation data

Read More

August 26, 2018

Markets Looking Forward To Rising Canadian And U.K. Interest Rates


Latest Canadian Consumer Prices Running Hot Key data this week were July Canadian Consumer prices which increased 3.0% year-on-year. This was unexpected and up significantly from 2.5% in June. The markets had been expecting an unchanged print. On a mo/mo basis, prices rose 0.5%. Core inflation was broadly unchanged. For instance, the Bank of Canada CPI-median measure was up only 2.0% yr/yr.. Many analysts felt that headline inflation might have been a one-off increase, reflecting fuel increases and higher labor costs in the airline industry. However, the economy has been beating expectations and excess capacity in the economy appears to be limited. Fu

Read More

August 19, 2018

Turkey Political and Currency Crisis Dominates Late Summer Trade

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Turkey Crisis Dominates Trading Activity The political and currency crisis in Turkey dominated trade at the end of last week and in the first part of the current week. There are many dimensions to the problem. Markets were most worried about the risk of contagion, however, only a handful of European banks were exposed to Turkey. Furthermore, the risks of significant problems in the European banking system were seen as minimal. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been keeping a close eye on the situation and has ready to act if needed. The imposition of ta

Read More

August 12, 2018

USD Range Trading. Reserve Bank Of Australia Dovish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


EURUSD Trading In Ranges Summer markets this year have been unusually thin. The EURUSD pair has been in a rough 1.15 to 1.1650 range with daily price ranges in between excessively choppy due to seasonal illiquidity. The GBPUSD and EURGBP pairs have been volatile as well due to ongoing Brexit discussions and wildly differing wire headlines. Markets should return to near normal liquidity conditions in the second half of August.

Read More

August 05, 2018

Bank of England Hikes Rates, More Fed Hikes Coming, And Bank Of Japan Dovish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Bank OF England Hikes Key Rate By 25bps To 0.75% As expected, the Bank of England hiked its key Repo Rate by 25bps on Thursday to 0.75%. Market odds on a hike at this meeting had been 90% in favor of this tightening into the meeting. The street consensus on the vote was 7-2, but it came out at 9-0 in favor of the hike. My view was this simply the view on this decision alone. I don’t feel the committee was sending a signal about the future. Afterwards. some in the markets were calling this a “dovish” rate hike. The central bank reiterated rei

Read More

July 29, 2018

Markets Still Trying To Digest Dollar Policy of Trump Administration; ECB Meeting

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


Trump Statements Opposing Strong Dollar Still Being Absorbed A week ago U.S. President Trump took the unprecedented step in recent history of talking down the USD and opposing further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The last President to jawbone the Fed not to raise interest rates was Richard Nixon in the early 1970’s. Since then its been taboo for a President to encroach on the independence of the Fed by commenting on monetary policy. As for his comments on forex, after too many misstatements by untrained government officials, it has become

Read More

Archives 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013
If you would like more in-depth information on this article and others...

Join Us Today!

The message from the founder

Click Here

Review our featured articles

Click Here

The Latest Articles
  • Brexit Worries Won’t Fade More »
  • Fed's Powell Confirms More Cautious Policy Path. Brexit Worries Persist More »
  • U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish More »
  • U.S. Midterm Elections In As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday More »
  • U.S. Midterm Elections Loom; Chancellor Merkel Sets Her Departure More »