Growing Attention On The Slowing Global Economy
19 Years ago | June 26, 2019 12/11/23, 12:00 AM
John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com
Global Economy Slowing Markets continue to worry about the sluggish growth in the Eurozone, Japan and Australia. There are also growing concerns about other economies to include the U.S., Canada and several others. The pressure is most intense on the Eurozone. The core of the Eurozone, Germany has been slowing and there appears to be no hope in the short run to turn things around. The only policy tool at hand is the monetary policy of the ECB. It is hard to figure out much else it can do. At the present time it is like pushing on a string. President Draghi has promised more monetary stimulus but few have strong hopes he will be successful in improving things in the immediate future.
After a decade long expansion. it appears the U.S. recovery might be in the process of running out of steam. Even the Fed acknowledges this. Also there is a general agreement that the central bank erred when it raised its Fed Funds target range by 25 bps last December. Fed comments appear to suggest the central bank is planning to execute a 25 bps rate cut at its meeting at the end of July. Street hopes for a 50bp rate cut have not been encouraged by top Fed officials. Keep an eye key U.S. data between now and the end of July for news that could tip the decision either way. Lastly this weekend sees the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. There has been a lot of chatter about some sort of trade deal between U.S. President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi on the sidelines of the conference. Most recently, Chinese sources have been throwing cold water on that speculation.
Be sure to refer every trading day to the Global-View forex trading website to see the continuously UPDATED International Economic and Events Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual economic and central bank data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Since 1997, Global-View.com has been featuring live discussions by active traders of current developments in the forex market in a convenient timeline format.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 1 July 2019
Final Mfg PMIs all day
00:00 CA- Holiday
A 08:30 DE- Employment
Tue 2 July 2019
AA 04:30 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 July 2019
Final Service PMIs all day
A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 July 2019
00:00 US- Holiday
Fri 5 June 2019
A 12:30 US/CA- Employment
The stand-oo between the U.S. appears to be endless. One day they have an agreement and the next day they don’t. Tariff threats by the President are not being greeted happily by China. They have by far the most to lose, given the massive trade gap the U.S. has with China. China also does not have the same view on Intellectual Property that most of the advanced economies respect. This is an intractable issue that is unlikely to be resolved even if there is an accord reached on paper. Furthermore, enforcement of any agreement will shortly become the next major issue, even if an agreement eventually is reached. I am not holding my breath waiting for an eleventh hour breakthrough. Markets may be expecting much too much from these discussions, because China potentially much more to lose than the U.S has, and undoubtedly see it helps their cause if they continue to drag their feet. We will see. Financial markets in the U.S. see the States with a lot to gain if a new trade relationship between the two is forged.
The Brexit Stand-Off May Never End the two major parties, Conservatives and Labour lost a lot of ground in local elections a week ago as voters told the politicos that the Parliamentary stand-off between the two major parties is not acceptable. At the present time, it would seem that no compromise is feasible. Furthermore, the EU sees it as being in their best interest to stall any accommodation, rather that reach an agreement.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 13 May 2019
No Major Data
Tue 14 May 2019
AA 08:30 UK- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 15 May 2019
A 0:30 AU- Employment
A 09:00 EZ- GDP
AA 12:30 CA- CPI, Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 16 May 2019
A 09:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 12:30 US-
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
Fri 17 Apr 2019
A 14:00 US- Flash Univ of Michigan
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
Be sure to refer every trading day to the Global-View forex trading website to see the continuously UPDATED International Economic and Events Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual economic and central bank data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Since 1997, Global-View.com has been featuring live discussions by active traders of current developments in the forex market in a convenient timeline format.
