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Second Thoughts on June Jobs Data: Outlook- July 13, 2014

Second Thoughts on June Jobs Data: Outlook- July 13, 2014

5 Years ago | July 13, 2014 00:00:00


June Employment Data Revisited
The big story just before the July 4 break was the unexpected +288K gain in June non-farm payrolls. Subsequent analysis revealed that a gain of roughly 800K in part-time jobs had been offset by a half-million DECLINE in full-time jobs. It is difficult to get excited about an economic rebound when full-time jobs decline by 500K in a month. Part-time jobs tend to be low-paying jobs. Thus market hopes for a strong rebound by the U.S. consumer might have been premature. The U.S. 10-yr bond yield closed last week at 2.65% and tested the 2.50% level early on Thursday during the Banco Espirito Sancto episode. We might have expected to see 10-yr yields approaching 2.70% in the latest week if traders were

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